Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44f2668969a4b140653c5f47ec889f489cab8f6bf09cf523c4d31ef91eac0355
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,724
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,721
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,724 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 46c | 535.71$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.89 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 50c | 501.87$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.53 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 51c | 414.5$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.1 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 55c | 365$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 35c | 257.13$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.18 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 66c | 226.49$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.66 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 61c | 217.18$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.57 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 168.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe53…99a6backed No | 41c | 149.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.07 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5d…38eabacked Yes | 54c | 149.02$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.02 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 51c | 145.67$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.33 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 36c | 144.73$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.77 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 35c | 118.88$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59a…1dbfbacked Yes | 58c | 118.05$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.33 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 111.83$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 45c | 110$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 50c | 104.58$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.3 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 44c | 103.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 48c | 102.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.34 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 49c | 102.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.33 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 44c | 94.86$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.07 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 54c | 91.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 73c | 69.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 27c | 60.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 49c | 57.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 49c | 57.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 57c | 56.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…9f83backed Yes | 77c | 51.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 84 | 76.2%64 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 45c | 51.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 36c | 50.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 49c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 80c | 49.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 55c | 49.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 51c | 46.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 51c | 46.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 45c | 44.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 52c | 43.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0a…2f0cbacked Yes | 47c | 42.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 46c | 39.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 37c | 39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 50c | 38.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ff…1d98backed No | 56c | 35.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 53c | 32.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 53c | 32.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 64c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce3…84b8backed Yes | 49c | 31.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 79c | 31.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf7…b963backed Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa621…0e64backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 45c | 29.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 49c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 54c | 27.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14a3…076ebacked Yes | 58c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 59c | 25.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67a8…7493backed No | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc31…3fe8backed No | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 47c | 24.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe961…fc41backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 70c | 17.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.