Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e77cc34a40f3469f2e982fd638130455dca4eb986fe8401306c9780c57d0d18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,365
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,161
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,365 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 38c | 299.53$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.88 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…b0aebacked Yes | 16c | 225$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 99 | 9.1%9 W · 90 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.93 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 61c | 159.46$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.44 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 38c | 157.08$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 40c | 155.69$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.83 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 122.75$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 70c | 118.88$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 40c | 107.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 59c | 102.28$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.29 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 62c | 100.21$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.23 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 62c | 91.31$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.87 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 61c | 89.47$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 60c | 82.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 50c | 75.13$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 72$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 61c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 18c | 60.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 42c | 59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 44c | 57.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 62c | 52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 48c | 51.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 56c | 51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 56c | 49.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3e…cefdbacked No | 61c | 48.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 56 | 67.9%38 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 62c | 48.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 58c | 46.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes | 26c | 46.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No | 61c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 62c | 43.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 60c | 43.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 56c | 42.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 41c | 40.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 36.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 59c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…0ad4backed Yes | 38c | 34.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 59c | 33.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbb…c918backed Yes | 50c | 31.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 41c | 31.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 58c | 31.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 63c | 30.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 41c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 54c | 27.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed Yes | 47c | 24.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 57c | 22.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 53c | 20.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…36cdbacked No | 61c | 20.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68cf…8cf8backed No | 60c | 16.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.