F1 · resolved market
Will the margin of victory at the end of the 2026 Tour De France be >7 minutes?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc47b3cf88f5039d49fab5296c8576dd5618c86ac224588f54f2ebc33503336e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,977
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,977 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Yes | 56c | 1,850$1,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,031.89 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb2…7adfbacked Yes | 10c | 999.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…df38backed Yes | 3c | 633.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…2f60backed Yes | 39c | 561$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a27…b772backed No | 52c | 546.85$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 460.03$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.42 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 37c | 431$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.78 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 55c | 388.49$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.69 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 50c | 376$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c5…6593backed Yes | 4c | 349.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 53c | 342.8$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d2…7ad6backed No | 32c | 299.33$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.79 | 100 | 65%65 W · 35 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2128…f203backed No | 46c | 249.04$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +243.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 7c | 214.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.59 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +140.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 56c | 214$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf841…915bbacked No | 56c | 203$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 57c | 181.28$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 64c | 170$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 57c | 152.88$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 52c | 132$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2388…73d2backed Yes | 52c | 128$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312c…ceecbacked Yes | 73c | 102.48$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.94 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 118 | 45.8%54 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 52c | 80.1$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf48…1751backed No | 61c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb4…408ebacked Yes | 56c | 78.65$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 16c | 77.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 67c | 77.18$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471c…d18ebacked Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ee…7a9bbacked Yes | 56c | 74.02$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c4…8346backed Yes | 56c | 71.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 56c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +120.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 61c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2217…b756backed Yes | 37c | 68.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed No | 61c | 66.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…5506backed No | 54c | 66.32$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed No | 54c | 64.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb1…f54ebacked No | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +210.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 50c | 54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 57c | 51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53f8…f76ebacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 60c | 47.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 59c | 43.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 50c | 38.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +139.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2d…2be7backed Yes | 30c | 34.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5141…7346backed Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fee…2e1abacked No | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6016…1ab5backed Yes | 40c | 26.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Yes | 51c | 26.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9060…d5c4backed No | 62c | 20.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3642…5db2backed No | 53c | 20.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b85…8363backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…47a2backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a6…9110backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…e1c8backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd20…6159backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x903c…079bbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…3998backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd219…0412backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x239f…8b82backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd83f…03b1backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc31…3fe8backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 63c | 18.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…b747backed Yes | 55c | 18.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the margin of victory at the end of the 2026 Tour De France be >7 minutes?this page
- Will the margin of victory at the end of the 2026 Tour De France be 1:00-2:59?No won
- Will the margin of victory at the end of the 2026 Tour De France be 3:00-4:59?No won
- Will the margin of victory at the end of the 2026 Tour De France be 5:00-6:59?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.