F1 · resolved market
Will the margin of victory at the end of the 2026 Tour De France be 5:00-6:59?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7028b99026b2fba02e979ea1a5e8cbb9c0182dcf7fd98740d34e598c72befd2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,167
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,548
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,167 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 37c | 823.54$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +172.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2128…f203backed Yes | 21c | 532.11$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +243.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 487$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 48c | 433.79$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 20c | 360$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…2f60backed Yes | 32c | 344.34$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6eab…b576backed Yes | 30c | 334.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +234.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 300$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8918…8824backed Yes | 5c | 280$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 7c | 210$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 9c | 170.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 155$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 79c | 152.11$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 22c | 149.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 10c | 145.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 9c | 143$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Yes | 9c | 128.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.3 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2388…73d2backed Yes | 31c | 128$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa935…e865backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 91.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1f…6465backed No | 64c | 79.88$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 68c | 74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2217…b756backed Yes | 31c | 68.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 63c | 66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 63c | 66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 36c | 61.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +139.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 58.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc028…f340backed No | 66c | 53.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3e…ea35backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…1011backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…3428backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 66c | 47.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 47c | 42.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 34c | 40.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +120.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…32dfbacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…5630backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02d5…2fecbacked Yes | 36c | 39.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 42c | 33.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34db…2e01backed Yes | 37c | 31.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 376 | 6.9%26 W · 350 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +97%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…b9f9backed No | 64c | 24.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 23.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 62c | 16.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the margin of victory at the end of the 2026 Tour De France be 5:00-6:59?this page
- Will the margin of victory at the end of the 2026 Tour De France be 1:00-2:59?No won
- Will the margin of victory at the end of the 2026 Tour De France be 3:00-4:59?No won
- Will the margin of victory at the end of the 2026 Tour De France be >7 minutes?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.