Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66b8b8591ef60c2477468146dbde3753c345fb6be0cd821c70de9d276bc4499d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,157
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,375
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,157 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 180 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 26c | 2,175$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.35 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 25c | 2,140$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.17 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 29c | 1,840$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.85 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 18c | 1,424$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.9 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 38c | 1,375$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.68 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 1,177$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.56 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 41c | 1,009$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.01 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 57c | 971.15$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.74 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 42c | 921.38$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.99 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 9c | 849.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.3 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 838$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.13 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 6c | 831.03$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 15c | 764.56$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.97 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 571.65$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.49 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 12c | 561.05$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.79 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 53c | 555.47$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.69 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 57c | 518.88$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.66 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 38c | 500$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.64 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 61c | 456.95$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.78 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 45c | 453.39$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.16 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 49c | 399.62$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.44 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 24c | 382.17$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.36 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc008…6adfbacked No | 76c | 370.82$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.42 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c28…a73bbacked Yes | 10c | 338.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 69c | 317.07$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.57 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 314.17$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.72 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 312.25$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.01 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 47c | 274$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.84 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 273.54$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 25c | 248.13$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.07 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 42c | 225$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.85 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 71c | 219.3$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.93 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 70c | 216.55$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.36 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5323…326abacked Yes | 46c | 215.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 67c | 209.65$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.89 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 73c | 205.44$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 44c | 202.72$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcec6…7566backed No | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 27c | 199.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.03 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 57c | 197.57$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 194$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.89 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 55c | 185.25$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.89 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 64c | 185.13$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.48 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 32c | 174.38$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.38 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca5a…1334backed Yes | 58c | 171.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 76c | 169.65$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.72 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 34c | 165.88$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.51 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 44c | 165.12$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.44 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 49c | 157.82$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.33 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 72c | 157.26$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.02 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 51c | 150.76$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.43 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7668…3effbacked Yes | 55c | 150.33$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…31bcbacked Yes | 72c | 143.5$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.32 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8b…90fdbacked Yes | 42c | 141.9$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 140.26$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.76 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…0322backed Yes | 34c | 140$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc54…db0ebacked Yes | 45c | 139.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 43c | 137.8$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.91 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 39c | 135.55$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.86 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 54c | 127.29$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.87 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 41c | 119.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12e3…3134backed Yes | 18c | 119.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x296e…0b9abacked Yes | 35c | 118.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.41 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 50c | 114.55$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.28 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6d…b81fbacked Yes | 34c | 110.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 49c | 110$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 50c | 107.93$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.54 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 41c | 107.86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 54c | 104.73$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.06 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…8d97backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9327…9800backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.9 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a13…72cebacked Yes | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 39c | 98.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 35c | 97.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 50c | 97.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 78c | 95.05$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 50c | 94.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 54c | 93.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 60c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 42c | 88.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce5…40f6backed Yes | 40c | 84.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 46c | 83.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 22c | 81.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 48c | 78.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6805…6fc2backed Yes | 40c | 73.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes | 41c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4235…81e4backed Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 62c | 69.29$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 44c | 68.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b4…1cd1backed Yes | 52c | 66.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 16c | 66.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 46c | 65.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed No | 57c | 65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.