TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$59,475
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$67,941

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,475 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6bf1…294fbacked Yes45c2,507$1,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,389.87118.3%13 W · 58 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-52.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e28…4983backed No1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1033654.2%182 W · 154 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No30c1,364$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.756,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked No36c1,210$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.3859121.5%127 W · 464 L-30.1wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-46.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No45c1,177$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.225,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc008…6adfbacked Yes63c1,174$738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.413938.5%15 W · 24 L+4.5wins+0.12per pick27cpaid-2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No39c1,095$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.884,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2851…6b8cbacked No51c1,022$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.2968338.8%265 W · 418 L+36.1wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes57c923.06$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.9823633.5%79 W · 157 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes41c921.64$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.9618731%58 W · 129 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-12.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes64c877.68$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.812,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd217…7561backed Yes78c814.08$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.951442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.19per pick62cpaid-29.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No45c677.22$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.961,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No21c674.22$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.962,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes34c662.29$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.0915433.8%52 W · 102 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde67…c144backed Yes65c651.33$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.2914835.8%53 W · 95 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ce3…1689backed Yes68c628.14$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.5647432.5%154 W · 320 L+20.2wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdadb…1870backed Yes37c556.14$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.8758922.8%134 W · 455 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No54c555.53$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.671,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes64c552.24$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.0510847.2%51 W · 57 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No55c532.96$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.513,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes36c511.81$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.264,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x09d9…1b48backed Yes19c500$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4053638.9%14 W · 22 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed No67c499.98$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.9949646%228 W · 268 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes14c466.29$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.769,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes13c463.48$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.552,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed Yes26c399.93$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.091,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No56c399.62$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.8353855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No62c358$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.485,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No5c355.74$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.384,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No73c341.14$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.744,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad50…3122backed Yes60c316.9$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.2147423.6%112 W · 362 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked No54c316.52$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.391,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes37c311.97$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.0928925.3%73 W · 216 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-25.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x702e…4357backed Yes42c301.22$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.2220832.7%68 W · 140 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe191…2720backed Yes33c298.71$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.73823.7%9 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes43c284.6$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.0534922.9%80 W · 269 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes27c270$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.2530832.5%100 W · 208 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+1.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No33c267.4$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.892,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc29…66b4backed Yes15c266.8$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.785448.1%26 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf421…efcebacked Yes26c249.83$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.9442820.1%86 W · 342 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb679…dbb1backed Yes41c243.9$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.91735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d64…e3fdbacked Yes37c243.86$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.863333.3%11 W · 22 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No32c235.84$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.352,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes59c224.33$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.969960.6%60 W · 39 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87ba…da46backed Yes27c215.17$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.4814635.6%52 W · 94 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed No78c213$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.1370741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06a3…fa45backed Yes73c206.88$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.8815660.9%95 W · 61 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes21c202.64$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.972,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4989…983ebacked No15c201.25$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9133626.8%90 W · 246 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes20c196.95$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.5687629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No55c189.22$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.2512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No16c180$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.815236.2%55 W · 97 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes48c176.78$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.726,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a0c…acd3backed Yes79c173.65$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.85825%2 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-66.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No66c167.74$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.713,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes31c161.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.3329941.1%123 W · 176 L+20.8wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+19.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No9c154.26$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.711,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0358…95a4backed Yes31c150$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.767441.9%31 W · 43 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b40…f533backed No66c148.52$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.35666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80e1…47a8backed No68c148.07$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9924262.4%151 W · 91 L+0.7wins0.00per pick62cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes31c142.58$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.4163538.4%244 W · 391 L+12.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7e3…7c16backed Yes50c140.14$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.67933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2349…1646backed No12c137.95$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0148261.8%298 W · 184 L+43.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked Yes22c136.83$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.7797152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30bd…3cf9backed Yes32c136.63$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.917630.3%23 W · 53 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+20.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No57c134.3$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.12,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No23c128.03$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.332,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No71c127.56$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.593,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No49c126.48$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.9399962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes33c125.72$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.921,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9c7…e3fcbacked Yes44c123.59$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.85850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01ce…27a2backed Yes22c122.35$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.7555336.7%203 W · 350 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5024…3007backed Yes20c121.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.0626948.3%130 W · 139 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+68.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13d3…415ebacked Yes43c120$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.0842253.1%224 W · 198 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No33c113.46$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.632,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes14c107.64$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.0746549.9%232 W · 233 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes60c107.02$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.683,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No70c105$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.242,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No65c100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.54,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed Yes14c100$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8677555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d32…98c6backed Yes15c100$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…8d97backed Yes31c99.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes15c99.98$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.997526.7%20 W · 55 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-7.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9fe5…4745backed No60c99.98$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4918629.6%55 W · 131 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-22.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes14c98.64$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.8371031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa087…91f7backed No68c91.09$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6217635.2%62 W · 114 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes24c84.9$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.2859125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No29c82.79$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.142,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2560…8d6dbacked Yes41c82.79$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.863043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+39%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c2c…a94cbacked Yes38c79.71$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.712842.9%12 W · 16 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+36.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcad1…7cf9backed Yes30c79.7$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.143246.9%15 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No29c76.64$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.852,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf255…a6e8backed No34c75.76$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.828269.5%57 W · 25 L+8.7wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+27.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa493…1b55backed Yes23c74.29$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.2326933.1%89 W · 180 L+21.8wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+71.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8b7b…9ab9backed No79c73.67$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.071241.7%5 W · 7 L-3.6wins-0.30per pick71cpaid-45.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No67c73.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.534,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No35c73.31$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.332,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Yes66c72.88$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.631,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes37c70$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.17331.5%23 W · 50 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.