Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ae461a814fa0d75fef7f4007894fcba57e8f92eca71d9d15ac53716b7376d9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,475
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,941
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,475 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked Yes | 45c | 2,507$1,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,389.8 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 30c | 1,364$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.75 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 36c | 1,210$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.38 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 45c | 1,177$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.22 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc008…6adfbacked Yes | 63c | 1,174$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.41 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 39c | 1,095$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.88 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 51c | 1,022$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.29 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 57c | 923.06$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.98 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 41c | 921.64$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.96 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 64c | 877.68$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.81 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd217…7561backed Yes | 78c | 814.08$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.95 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 45c | 677.22$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.96 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 21c | 674.22$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.96 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 34c | 662.29$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.09 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 65c | 651.33$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.29 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 68c | 628.14$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.56 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 37c | 556.14$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.87 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 54c | 555.53$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.67 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 64c | 552.24$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.05 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 55c | 532.96$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.51 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 36c | 511.81$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.26 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09d9…1b48backed Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 67c | 499.98$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.99 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 14c | 466.29$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.76 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 13c | 463.48$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.55 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 26c | 399.93$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.09 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 56c | 399.62$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.83 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 358$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.48 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 5c | 355.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 341.14$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.74 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 60c | 316.9$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.21 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 54c | 316.52$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.39 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 37c | 311.97$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.09 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 42c | 301.22$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.22 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe191…2720backed Yes | 33c | 298.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.7 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 43c | 284.6$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.05 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 27c | 270$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.25 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 33c | 267.4$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.89 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc29…66b4backed Yes | 15c | 266.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.78 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 26c | 249.83$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.94 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb679…dbb1backed Yes | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d64…e3fdbacked Yes | 37c | 243.86$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.86 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 32c | 235.84$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.35 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 59c | 224.33$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.96 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 27c | 215.17$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.48 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 78c | 213$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.13 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed Yes | 73c | 206.88$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.88 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 21c | 202.64$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.97 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked No | 15c | 201.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 20c | 196.95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.56 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 189.22$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 16c | 180$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 48c | 176.78$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.72 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0c…acd3backed Yes | 79c | 173.65$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 66c | 167.74$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.71 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.33 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 9c | 154.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.76 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b40…f533backed No | 66c | 148.52$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 68c | 148.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 31c | 142.58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.41 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e3…7c16backed Yes | 50c | 140.14$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.67 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 12c | 137.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 22c | 136.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.77 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…3cf9backed Yes | 32c | 136.63$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.91 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 57c | 134.3$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.1 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 23c | 128.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 127.56$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.59 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 49c | 126.48$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.93 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 33c | 125.72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.92 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c7…e3fcbacked Yes | 44c | 123.59$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 22c | 122.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.75 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 20c | 121.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 43c | 120$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.08 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 33c | 113.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 14c | 107.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.07 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 60c | 107.02$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.68 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 105$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.24 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d32…98c6backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…8d97backed Yes | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 15c | 99.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.99 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed No | 60c | 99.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.49 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 14c | 98.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.83 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed No | 68c | 91.09$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 24c | 84.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.28 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 29c | 82.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2560…8d6dbacked Yes | 41c | 82.79$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.86 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +39%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2c…a94cbacked Yes | 38c | 79.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.71 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcad1…7cf9backed Yes | 30c | 79.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.14 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 29c | 76.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed No | 34c | 75.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 23c | 74.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.23 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7b…9ab9backed No | 79c | 73.67$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.07 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -3.6wins | -0.30per pick | 71cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 73.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.53 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 35c | 73.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 66c | 72.88$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes | 37c | 70$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.