Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f1c3fe24e4fed94bda24cc3ccff54fb8caf2fff77a528100dd5163d1be05b32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,623
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,625
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,623 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,711$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 1c | 1,710$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 4c | 1,495$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,450$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 2c | 1,150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 13c | 1,109$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.27 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 31c | 1,082$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.25 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 9c | 908.16$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.93 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 2c | 885.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 8c | 770.43$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 640.45$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.68 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 615.13$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.57 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 9c | 600$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4235…81e4backed Yes | 4c | 594.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 571.57$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.05 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c28…a73bbacked Yes | 4c | 479.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 30c | 469.75$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.25 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…05a5backed Yes | 19c | 399.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 84 | 26.2%22 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 367$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.56 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 347.5$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.59 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 336.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 16c | 315.9$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.14 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe094…11cdbacked Yes | 15c | 300$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.42 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 4c | 274.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 27c | 261.4$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.38 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 24c | 251.41$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.71 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 20c | 249$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 218.59$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.64 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 213.34$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 70c | 195.3$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.57 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 12c | 185.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 8c | 172$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 29c | 167.72$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 8c | 149.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 33c | 138.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.21 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc037…924abacked No | 79c | 126.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 73cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 12c | 115.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 10c | 110.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…0322backed Yes | 26c | 110$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 11c | 106.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 74c | 103.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…8d97backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddce…7194backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3277…f0b6backed Yes | 38c | 95.24$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fe…16e4backed No | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 27c | 83.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 81.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 71c | 79.82$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…6030backed Yes | 20c | 75.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec7…f2eebacked Yes | 32c | 73.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 67c | 72.85$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 68c | 71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 70c | 65.46$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x031d…87d1backed Yes | 30c | 64.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a8…9c50backed No | 74c | 62.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…d13cbacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12e3…3134backed Yes | 18c | 59.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e7…ed80backed No | 80c | 57.71$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 73c | 57.32$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78e9…eac3backed No | 71c | 56.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80e8…2276backed No | 71c | 56.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 24c | 56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 23c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed13…ac4abacked Yes | 34c | 52.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 29c | 43.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5db9…bc42backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 31c | 37.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 68c | 37.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…808bbacked No | 67c | 36.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 66c | 36.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc13c…764dbacked No | 67c | 34.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked No | 72c | 34.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 76c | 34.49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…9182backed No | 64c | 31.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 30.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 73c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 69c | 25.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5604…912bbacked No | 67c | 23.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 62cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 71c | 23.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84a4…5805backed No | 68c | 21.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 21.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb2…d640backed No | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 75c | 20.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6122…7b8fbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97f1…a523backed No | 71c | 19.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd65d…2fcbbacked No | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b19…bae5backed No | 67c | 16.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 64c | 15.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 68c | 14.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.