Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce2710e35c53c59b6c0d13ad3cd6b9bbddc60d215c13e135fd6f5e69267f004d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,680
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,680 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 30c | 2,171$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.96 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 17c | 1,840$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.94 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…7fbdbacked Yes | 2c | 805.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 9c | 700$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 22c | 482.97$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.26 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 474.91$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.24 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 10c | 366.49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 64c | 347.24$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.5 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 35c | 286.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 52c | 250$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 78c | 202.77$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…794ebacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 63c | 180$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.38 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 25c | 157.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 79c | 139.43$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 46c | 131.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.31 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…e312backed Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 65c | 111$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 33c | 105$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 34c | 104.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed No | 71c | 95.28$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…3715backed Yes | 28c | 88.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 83$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 68c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6e…e44cbacked Yes | 48c | 75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 70.96$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 65c | 70$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 69c | 66.8$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc9…d91cbacked Yes | 28c | 62.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 45c | 57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 49c | 53.48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 20c | 52.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 38c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9053…fb1cbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 28c | 39.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 51c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25f0…7d92backed Yes | 27c | 37.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 48c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f92…520fbacked Yes | 52c | 36.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…6b76backed No | 71c | 36.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1298…e850backed Yes | 34c | 35.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 61c | 35.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x462d…b31dbacked Yes | 54c | 32.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 32c | 32.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…13b4backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 50c | 30.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 53c | 29.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ec…5946backed Yes | 52c | 29.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 61c | 24.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 46c | 23.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa196…8ab9backed Yes | 52c | 22.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd79a…a117backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc31…3fe8backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…d453backed No | 73c | 19.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 25?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on July 25?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 25?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 25?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 25?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 25?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.