Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45fcd8429287af0ca06c7791725a80e7f5de8d8f3e28b07e5ac43265a20dd0bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,058
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,058 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 19c | 589.99$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.5 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…794ebacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 19c | 375.17$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.47 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7492…532cbacked Yes | 27c | 294.72$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 27c | 203.63$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 25c | 176.9$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed No | 78c | 152.2$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked No | 80c | 130$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 73c | 128.84$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.42 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 19c | 107.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…f981backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 26c | 89.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 76c | 74.23$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 79c | 70.96$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 70c | 69.9$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 23c | 57.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 70c | 57.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc9…d91cbacked No | 70c | 53.33$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 70c | 51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked No | 76c | 50.22$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x372d…fce2backed Yes | 21c | 49.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 69c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 72c | 36.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 65c | 28.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e96…7527backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 67c | 18.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed No | 74c | 15.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 25?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on July 25?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 25?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 25?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 25?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 25?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.