Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x758864e5955d45b78b5fb92cc1a9788d800f7359509961627398b52722d2df67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,957
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,957 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 55c | 831.65$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.92 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 34c | 825$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.05 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…ab49backed Yes | 63c | 649.94$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.71 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204c…b31dbacked Yes | 45c | 366.92$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.43 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 37c | 298.28$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.06 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 63c | 264$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.32 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 60c | 260.24$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.79 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 53c | 214.79$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.66 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…66c3backed No | 37c | 210.97$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.97 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 39c | 192.4$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.36 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 38c | 185.92$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.27 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 22c | 165.26$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.32 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 36c | 159.9$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.87 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 35c | 156.97$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.03 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 55c | 150$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 57c | 141.12$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.74 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 53c | 100.68$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.64 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 55c | 89.46$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.26 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed No | 36c | 88.29$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.37 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 60c | 81.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2415…c70bbacked No | 38c | 78.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 45c | 77.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 75.14$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.57 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 66c | 72.8$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 55c | 71.86$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 65c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 43c | 65.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 64c | 64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 65c | 59.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 62c | 59.37$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 45c | 57.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc9…f3d2backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +147.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…f8bfbacked No | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 62c | 44.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 46c | 43.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 56c | 42.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc31…3fe8backed Yes | 60c | 40.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 54c | 37.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd496…00ecbacked No | 41c | 36.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 38c | 36.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 47c | 35.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 55c | 34.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 65c | 31.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e0…6392backed Yes | 63c | 30.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 64c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb674…e97abacked Yes | 62c | 27.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -5.7wins | -0.31per pick | 59cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 54c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed Yes | 65c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 66c | 23.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 45c | 23.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 55c | 18.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.