Tweets · resolved market
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x811d50b9c39b57bf2603c6881c574a30c73cdb7b464ae63a4a6e2c67df479063
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,504
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,504 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed Yes | 45c | 698.59$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.29 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +18.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 54c | 437.99$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.49 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa07…4ebdbacked Yes | 37c | 419$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 36c | 317.71$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.52 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 9c | 276.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 62 | 16.1%10 W · 52 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes | 10c | 243$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.72 | 412 | 20.6%85 W · 327 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 45c | 232.25$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.36 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 57c | 212.73$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.2 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb637…4c42backed Yes | 59c | 160.64$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.64 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked Yes | 57c | 131.27$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +8.2wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 75c | 114.27$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.18 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.2 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b5…a079backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11b5…8c02backed No | 46c | 94.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 48c | 82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 53c | 82$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.22 | 217 | 32.3%70 W · 147 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1622…a3fdbacked Yes | 18c | 77.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.91 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 60c | 62.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 154 | 55.2%85 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 50c | 62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 97 | 43.3%42 W · 55 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 43c | 58.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 210 | 63.3%133 W · 77 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 22c | 57.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 78c | 50.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 50c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…0439backed Yes | 29c | 42.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 67c | 40.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed No | 66c | 40.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 66c | 36.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 276 | 47.8%132 W · 144 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…b380backed Yes | 51c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 430 | 27%116 W · 314 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ee…a2e3backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb5…c246backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc31…3fe8backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfe…11fdbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 145 | 75.9%110 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?this page
- Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.