Tweets · resolved market
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c9ecd56d8b55ba3eb0d9aaebe593dcde5a8ac95f80c059ef6894f5056e708e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,341
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,722
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,341 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed No | 55c | 719.14$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.08 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +18.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa48c…5506backed No | 25c | 507.13$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.77 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa07…4ebdbacked Yes | 60c | 481.81$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 67c | 218.26$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.67 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked Yes | 45c | 216.45$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 61c | 205.8$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.25 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed No | 57c | 192.39$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.38 | 317 | 43.2%137 W · 180 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 24c | 185$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.01 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed No | 59c | 166$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.7 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 38c | 164$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.2 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 30c | 129.9$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.71 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 42c | 106.1$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb51a…67aabacked No | 29c | 101.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.33 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 386 | 48.2%186 W · 200 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6db…a8f6backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7062…f0d7backed Yes | 56c | 79.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1622…a3fdbacked Yes | 36c | 59.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 32c | 58.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 210 | 63.3%133 W · 77 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 23c | 58.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.02 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 45c | 54.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 50.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6be4…dcbbbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd850…e26cbacked Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 30c | 42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 63c | 33.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2865…2005backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 59c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3008…3c76backed No | 61c | 20.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae6b…597cbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -6.1wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4402…11b8backed No | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?this page
- Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.