TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$32,728
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$40,896

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,728 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x437f…5b95backed Yes32c1,248$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$850.1312536.8%46 W · 79 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9196…d934backed Yes75c843.69$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.7564460.6%390 W · 254 L+92.2wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+36.4%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x93a6…b1c2backed No16c704.14$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.4910547.6%50 W · 55 L-0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe25c…7908backed Yes72c669.03$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.622857.5%131 W · 97 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8db2…d0f5backed No2c649$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9972125.5%184 W · 537 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c3…92fcbacked No10c573.6$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6017649.4%87 W · 89 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a12…f7fdbacked No25c559.86$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.5616045.6%73 W · 87 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24ed…8a18backed Yes48c526.18$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.8118732.1%60 W · 127 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No3c522.8$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed No25c439.38$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.6548919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No26c419.94$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.084,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No60c409$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.418,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No79c403.96$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.222,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a7c…d7b8backed Yes75c372.61$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.8722550.7%114 W · 111 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No43c358.95$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.7112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No25c301.18$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.496,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6122…7b8fbacked No80c255$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2049053.3%48 W · 42 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yes77c252.57$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.711,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No24c249$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.843,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x164c…3e39backed Yes74c247.45$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.731,03451.3%530 W · 504 L+69.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes59c223.26$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.5427129.2%79 W · 192 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5042…f296backed Yes79c212.59$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.589744.3%43 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x34d5…a977backed Yes56c200$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.423030.9%71 W · 159 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed Yes59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8288028.9%254 W · 626 L-2.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes34c199.26$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.711,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes60c187.85$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.1423540.9%96 W · 139 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a83…497dbacked Yes52c182.25$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.2434935.2%123 W · 226 L+1.7wins0.00per pick35cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17c0…0426backed Yes68c171.5$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.09862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No31c171.25$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.724,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes38c167.99$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.7887629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No58c164.65$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.853,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No31c164$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.454,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes62c161.51$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.5122446.4%104 W · 120 L+31.1wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+35.4%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No34c161.2$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.491,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No75c160$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes73c155.79$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.7238655.7%215 W · 171 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37df…f8b9backed No66c151.51$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011958.8%70 W · 49 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid+1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No51c140.6$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.25,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No60c137.12$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.694,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No51c133.67$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.927,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x9551…ca44backed No58c132.84$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.0515950.3%80 W · 79 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x081f…bf8fbacked Yes78c124.76$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.811060%6 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ecc…c745backed No44c122.53$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.417947.5%85 W · 94 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2831…5473backed Yes78c122.08$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.841060%6 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes77c122$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.7816641%68 W · 98 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked Yes44c122$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.3233746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed No51c118$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.0634853.4%186 W · 162 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No71c111.19$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.8792678.2%724 W · 202 L+51.2wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No57c105.51$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.7110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes63c102.14$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.812,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes26c100$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7471031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No46c99.27$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed No41c98.86$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0728441.2%117 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3164…3c65backed No72c97$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.4844465.3%290 W · 154 L+0.8wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes26c94.79$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.431,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No46c92.76$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.292,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c33…38c9backed Yes67c91.48$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.1924732%79 W · 168 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes58c86.56$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.5629536.9%109 W · 186 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac36…b1e1backed Yes57c85.42$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.734100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+144.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No40c84$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.915,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd12…7f29backed Yes30c83.86$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.8215437.7%58 W · 96 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No80c81.8$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.091,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d0f…b52abacked Yes63c78.25$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.957855.1%43 W · 35 L+6.6wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+17.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9aa8…5e72backed No42c75.7$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.895137.3%19 W · 32 L-5.1wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-28.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb7a8…9c50backed Yes70c74.61$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.312445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No67c74$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.589,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes26c73.49$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.6167336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No65c69$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.852,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes79c62.66$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1620662.1%128 W · 78 L-14.0wins-0.07per pick69cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No75c61$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.751,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No70c60$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.81,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4680050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No49c59.98$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.291,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55bc…c41fbacked Yes34c59.52$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.523100%3 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+215.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xead3…b125backed Yes29c58.8$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.757252.8%38 W · 34 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-8.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No66c53.38$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.232,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No44c52.85$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.251,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked No47c52.11$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4949551.9%257 W · 238 L-25.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c91…5cccbacked No56c51.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.913148.4%15 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1eb…7afebacked No22c50.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2230%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No38c50.71$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.271,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes73c50.05$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4847239.8%188 W · 284 L+31.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+35.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4bb2…8948backed Yes77c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-60.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes78c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1120546.8%96 W · 109 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc9b…303ebacked Yes76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick62cpaid-48%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes77c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.557948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4c8…0ed9backed Yes29c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.56046.7%28 W · 32 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7320…0a3fbacked No47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.516148.4%78 W · 83 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c54…02e9backed No48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246150.8%31 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46b5…bd3fbacked No41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01e3…c67fbacked No48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246451.6%33 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea21…f753backed Yes41c49.98$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.4923668.2%161 W · 75 L+18.8wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed No40c49.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0377851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed Yes63c46.87$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.3453951.9%280 W · 259 L+54.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No46c46.28$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.291,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2797…9bc0backed No44c44.84$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7318142.5%77 W · 104 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7244…2aafbacked No62c44.26$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5710665.1%69 W · 37 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No69c43.47$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.999,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed Yes75c43.24$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8175546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x11a4…f434backed No44c43$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9247569.5%330 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.