Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba782a343862305414496259bb86cea9263a5d0618e604534987b4c294b30dfa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,881
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,072$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed Yes | 9c | 722.87$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.09 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 22c | 583$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.41 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 32c | 525.81$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.35 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 8c | 289.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 71c | 270.06$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.45 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 259.45$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.47 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 73c | 252.22$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.95 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 33c | 225.39$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…559fbacked Yes | 19c | 211.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 18c | 186.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 12c | 174.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 73c | 161.19$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bf63backed Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 146.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 25c | 144.28$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 140.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 140.6$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.32 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 67c | 137.04$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.51 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 75c | 132.69$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 25c | 111.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 107.64$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 33c | 106.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 35c | 99.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a8…9c50backed No | 75c | 95.02$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 70c | 90$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 25c | 86.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 14c | 81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed Yes | 26c | 76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 15c | 70$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 19c | 63.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 66c | 61.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 32c | 58.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 34c | 49.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 37c | 48.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 26c | 46.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed No | 64c | 46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked No | 67c | 45.69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7406…162bbacked No | 66c | 44.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ed…8993backed Yes | 35c | 41.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e26…1698backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 35c | 39.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 35c | 39.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 67c | 38.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 67c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffc…594fbacked Yes | 35c | 34.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 68c | 30.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1a…8c64backed No | 66c | 30.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 68c | 29.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed No | 68c | 26.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 20.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe02d…bcffbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a68…13f0backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…d575backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 94 | 70.2%66 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 80c | 19.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 67c | 16.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.