Music · resolved market
Will "Been By Now - Morgan Wallen" be the #2 US song this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8806af63154f6fda0b800a5e6f07d6bc71e439538e1a4c642d9ffd87289a033
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,592
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,812
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,592 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9578…f066backed Yes | 57c | 1,135$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.2 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 78c | 451$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.41 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed No | 9c | 409.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 17c | 408.45$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.24 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 20c | 354.4$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked No | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec4…cfc8backed No | 44c | 277.06$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 59c | 259.87$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.03 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 70c | 191.95$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 42c | 147.66$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 18c | 145$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 11c | 140$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 43c | 127$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.61 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 18c | 110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 11c | 109$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 11c | 105.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 43c | 95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 43c | 95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 25c | 86.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 80c | 83.21$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 69cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 34c | 62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x34dd…7961backed Yes | 56c | 46.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb713…fb48backed No | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4f…e321backed No | 42c | 34.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fee…2e1abacked No | 56c | 26.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x582f…9cd5backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc31…3fe8backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 58c | 17.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 69c | 16.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Been By Now - Morgan Wallen" be the #2 US song this week?this page
- Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #2 US song this week?No won
- Will "Earrings - Malcolm Todd" be the #2 US song this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.