Music · resolved market
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #2 US song this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedf811ba09cfe44e9e280a26c1cee43ca5aba33fb8b7c2a3cec067ab7b665c1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,197
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,197 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked No | 65c | 1,695$1,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.55 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 684.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 58 | 3.4%2 W · 56 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +202.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 571$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…c199backed Yes | 35c | 425.45$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 275.83$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.3 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 35c | 230$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfec4…cfc8backed Yes | 29c | 218.02$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 37c | 119.78$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 35c | 97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8533…7c76backed Yes | 35c | 84.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c71…9338backed Yes | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…16a0backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 35c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2247…4304backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #2 US song this week?this page
- Will "Been By Now - Morgan Wallen" be the #2 US song this week?Yes won
- Will "Earrings - Malcolm Todd" be the #2 US song this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.