Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60f9179f4e4b0f2d329b92048cb11b7e38c20bfb940f69859aa2a02ac9b4e523
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,246
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,858
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,246 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed No | 52c | 3,289$1,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,585.66 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 116 | 14.7%17 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 45c | 778.43$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.99 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 52c | 725$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 49c | 712.15$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.26 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 41c | 344.43$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.29 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 12c | 325.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 56c | 299.98$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 39c | 256$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 40c | 252.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 59c | 218$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.27 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 63c | 198.62$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.4 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 45c | 185.95$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.12 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 65c | 182.9$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.68 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 35c | 172.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.31 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 28c | 162.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 31c | 160.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 57c | 150.49$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.78 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 42c | 150$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 38c | 147.64$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.53 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 33c | 146$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.18 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 136$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 40c | 126.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 38c | 118.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 44c | 110.86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 44c | 110.8$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1a…2987backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 30c | 90.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 46c | 89.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 13c | 88.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 31c | 87.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 34c | 84.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 52c | 81.56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.21 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf35…3574backed Yes | 55c | 81.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 34c | 81.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…fb74backed Yes | 55c | 76.49$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.07 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b4…9299backed Yes | 55c | 75.54$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 72$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 71c | 67.23$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 66.3$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 55c | 66.11$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 49c | 64.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 43c | 61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.77 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 43c | 60.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 64c | 60.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 52c | 58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 58c | 55.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 47c | 53.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa03c…9a81backed Yes | 48c | 47.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 50c | 45.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 56c | 44.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 56c | 44.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 54c | 42.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 41.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 33c | 37.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 67c | 36.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 51c | 35.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 48c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21ee…885cbacked Yes | 42c | 34.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 52c | 34.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb9…9c56backed Yes | 48c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +9.3wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x85aa…691bbacked No | 62c | 31.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea5…0b15backed Yes | 39c | 30.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 38c | 30.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 40c | 30.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 55c | 29.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 72c | 29.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 50c | 29.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked No | 59c | 29.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 44c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 64c | 26.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 46c | 25.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 56c | 24.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 54c | 23.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 53c | 22.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 77c | 21.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3f…bc25backed Yes | 54c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…1479backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…7c9abacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc31…3fe8backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 61c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 65c | 18.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.