TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,572
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,843

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,572 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes30c1,263$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$878.3110342.7%44 W · 59 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+121.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes11c950.53$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$846.968,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No63c442.7$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.362,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No54c394.75$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.3810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed No8c390$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.73,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No59c374.47$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.4974926.7%200 W · 549 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No67c356.39$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.042,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No12c340$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.395852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No61c326.13$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.844,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No70c300$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2101,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbf…d779backed Yes77c259.96$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.968748.3%42 W · 45 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No69c259.55$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.094,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No55c218$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.944,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No28c205.83$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.124,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7772…c40abacked Yes20c192.1$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.684015%6 W · 34 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked No60c191.49$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.5157545%259 W · 316 L+26.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No63c188.51$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.822,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No41c179.33$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.392,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1468…0745backed Yes29c170$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.7513138.9%51 W · 80 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed No52c164$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.2891444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No70c150$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10577555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c65…2e0dbacked Yes79c127.3$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.34065%26 W · 14 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No52c121.69$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe6e…2313backed No55c116.2$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.8326256.5%148 W · 114 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93f7…c133backed Yes43c104.53$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.6818555.7%103 W · 82 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed No47c102.04$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3386952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bbd…3bedbacked No57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5737541.6%156 W · 219 L-52.4wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-28%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes49c98.41$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.2819137.2%71 W · 120 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes51c97.88$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.9680130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No49c96.06$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.079,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes13c91.83$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.741,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x92eb…9668backed Yes55c90.41$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.4110936.7%40 W · 69 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes13c90$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.31,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No77c88.15$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.59,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1987…1d94backed Yes47c87.46$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.468348.2%40 W · 43 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No69c86$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.342,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No34c84.8$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes42c80$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.43,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No71c77.7$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.224,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No73c77$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.533,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes43c75$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.7581855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes62c72.32$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3217649.4%87 W · 89 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No57c72.19$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.831,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No18c70.01$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.396,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No62c68.05$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.362,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9acf…0cc2backed No28c67.33$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0522945.4%104 W · 125 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No76c66.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.441,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No78c63$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.143,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes52c59.96$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.6756048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No54c59.28$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe584…9157backed Yes21c56.03$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.9924531%76 W · 169 L-1.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed No40c56$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2849854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa03c…9a81backed Yes45c55.56$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.563441.2%14 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b5d…38eabacked Yes46c54.35$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.351643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-23.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No68c53.6$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.257,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes60c53.27$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.3119039.5%75 W · 115 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0b5…e373backed Yes45c50.4$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.7215128.5%43 W · 108 L-12.7wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-24.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No77c50$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.51,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcca3…7450backed Yes24c50$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.142643.2%184 W · 242 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c8f…b385backed No70c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35520%1 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.37per pick57cpaid-63%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd503…325fbacked Yes43c46.51$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.512835.7%10 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a09…9b7fbacked Yes27c43.22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.6715850.6%80 W · 78 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No32c43.17$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.991,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes47c42.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5511146.8%52 W · 59 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef1b…764fbacked Yes48c40.81$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.227850%39 W · 39 L+7.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+14.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa5cb…6882backed No57c40$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9517759.9%106 W · 71 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No67c39.78$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.531,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3175…9bb2backed Yes55c38.04$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9516642.8%71 W · 95 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No71c37.18$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.511,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfb9…9c56backed Yes45c35$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.256157.4%35 W · 26 L+9.3wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+42.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb34d…2a65backed No69c34.39$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.735724.6%14 W · 43 L-15.2wins-0.27per pick51cpaid-53.5%equal weight29-0.18 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No77c34.26$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.514,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52dc…33c9backed Yes60c33.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.576936.3%279 W · 490 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No57c32$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.244,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No40c31.11$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.522,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb38…467cbacked Yes63c30.09$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.134656.5%26 W · 20 L-0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No53c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.91,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x789d…af8bbacked No64c28.92$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.399060%54 W · 36 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf71a…fa40backed Yes45c28.52$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6419042.6%81 W · 109 L-11.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb782…aa2dbacked Yes46c28.32$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.322462.5%15 W · 9 L+3.5wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+22.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed No39c27.1$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.786847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes41c26.83$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8338454.9%211 W · 173 L+26.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes44c25.72$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4470148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56e3…9a51backed No40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010830.6%33 W · 75 L-10.5wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-23.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No45c23.3$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.442,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes43c23.26$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2619559.5%116 W · 79 L0.0wins0.00per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2faa…26c2backed Yes49c21.4$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.912147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaff5…14babacked No71c21.13$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1515375.2%115 W · 38 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick74cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1632…ad5abacked No54c20.37$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1150261%306 W · 196 L-17.9wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f23…29b2backed No80c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-30.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb22a…1479backed No70c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143369.7%23 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3594…cd28backed Yes74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.25158.8%30 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x500e…7c9abacked Yes53c19.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.46357.1%36 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe229…ea0fbacked No57c19.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3927247.8%130 W · 142 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes69c18.06$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.5821964.8%142 W · 77 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No70c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.550373.2%368 W · 135 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c3f…e6a2backed No76c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.458469%58 W · 26 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.