Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9c81e4dfc74c5dc4c515be295809890ccbb9dba473a00c992432d0e8277664b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,572
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,572 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 30c | 1,263$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.31 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 950.53$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.96 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 63c | 442.7$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.36 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 54c | 394.75$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.38 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 8c | 390$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 59c | 374.47$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.49 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 67c | 356.39$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.04 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 12c | 340$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 61c | 326.13$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.84 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 70c | 300$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…d779backed Yes | 77c | 259.96$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.96 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 259.55$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.09 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 218$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.94 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 28c | 205.83$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…c40abacked Yes | 20c | 192.1$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.68 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 60c | 191.49$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.51 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 63c | 188.51$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.82 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 41c | 179.33$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.39 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 29c | 170$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.75 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 52c | 164$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.28 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 70c | 150$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c65…2e0dbacked Yes | 79c | 127.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 121.69$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.51 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 55c | 116.2$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.83 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 43c | 104.53$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.68 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 47c | 102.04$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 49c | 98.41$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.28 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 51c | 97.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.96 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 96.06$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.07 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 13c | 91.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.74 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 55c | 90.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.41 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 13c | 90$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.3 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 88.15$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 47c | 87.46$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.46 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 69c | 86$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 84.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 77.7$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.22 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 77$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.53 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 43c | 75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 62c | 72.32$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 57c | 72.19$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.83 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 70.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 62c | 68.05$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.36 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed No | 28c | 67.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 76c | 66.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 52c | 59.96$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 54c | 59.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 21c | 56.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 40c | 56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa03c…9a81backed Yes | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5d…38eabacked Yes | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 68c | 53.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 60c | 53.27$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 45c | 50.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8f…b385backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -63%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd503…325fbacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked Yes | 27c | 43.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 32c | 43.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 48c | 40.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 67c | 39.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 55c | 38.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 71c | 37.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb9…9c56backed Yes | 45c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +9.3wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…2a65backed No | 69c | 34.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -15.2wins | -0.27per pick | 51cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 34.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 60c | 33.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 40c | 31.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…467cbacked Yes | 63c | 30.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…af8bbacked No | 64c | 28.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 45c | 28.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb782…aa2dbacked Yes | 46c | 28.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 39c | 27.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 41c | 26.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 44c | 25.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 45c | 23.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2faa…26c2backed Yes | 49c | 21.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…14babacked No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 153 | 75.2%115 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f23…29b2backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…1479backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…cd28backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…7c9abacked Yes | 53c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 57c | 19.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 69c | 18.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.