Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x304481d64fc10163564daf61c76156bb704f45c530df6dc8e05f4b2e68ba83a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,909
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,951
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,909 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 42c | 2,540$1,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,483.74 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 57c | 666.41$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.88 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed Yes | 70c | 551.99$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.81 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 69c | 429.21$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.28 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 61c | 414.65$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.13 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 5c | 412.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 59c | 409.7$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.82 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 59c | 300$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8deabacked Yes | 66c | 291.51$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.97 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 58c | 250$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 23c | 245.64$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.57 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 20c | 240$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 45c | 238.5$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.27 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 33c | 225$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.15 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 34c | 214.07$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.84 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 14c | 199.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 39c | 181.35$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.52 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…e312backed Yes | 61c | 175.19$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.96 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 11c | 165.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 58c | 154$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.32 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 57c | 148$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.76 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 57c | 146$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.43 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 47c | 134.19$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.09 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 37c | 130.61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.58 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 20c | 121.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 24c | 99.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 60c | 95.16$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.06 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 66c | 80.15$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc31…3fe8backed Yes | 47c | 76.94$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.97 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed Yes | 52c | 71$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5f…d2d9backed No | 49c | 58.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3588…fb71backed No | 62c | 58.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.35per pick | 49cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 41c | 56.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e7…b9a1backed No | 42c | 55.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 75c | 54.43$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfc…0be4backed No | 37c | 54.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 59c | 51.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaed0…db33backed Yes | 38c | 49.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.43per pick | 32cpaid | +135.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x772f…b3aebacked Yes | 56c | 48.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb216…e994backed Yes | 74c | 42.91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 50c | 42.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 35c | 35.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 36c | 35.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…7004backed Yes | 65c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fb…7c05backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5d…e60abacked Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 42c | 27.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…7fbdbacked Yes | 55c | 27.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed No | 53c | 26.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 53c | 26.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed Yes | 50c | 26.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.35per pick | 51cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 40c | 26.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfc…7445backed Yes | 49c | 24.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe5…fe4abacked Yes | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde86…f015backed Yes | 67c | 23.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffee…ea6bbacked Yes | 53c | 22.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b12…8743backed Yes | 69c | 21.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 55c | 20.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 23?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 23?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 23?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.