Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x546f47db4dec853b7964d95cc5a36a3b2cb6753e96f5bf66d32cf956ca171d5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,157
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,256
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,157 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 23c | 1,265$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.13 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 20c | 1,026$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.1 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 577$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.31 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 17c | 360.65$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.67 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 33c | 250$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 243$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.08 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 23c | 211.12$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 10c | 153.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 8c | 139.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 79c | 133$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 110$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 27c | 105$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5844…5bd4backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 28c | 81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 26c | 76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b12…8743backed Yes | 22c | 73.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x772f…b3aebacked Yes | 32c | 72.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 27c | 69.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 22c | 67.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f0…7d92backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 32c | 64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 78c | 61.74$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 32c | 58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7a…8465backed Yes | 30c | 56.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4c…4117backed Yes | 33c | 55.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9a…5576backed Yes | 33c | 54.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…7fbdbacked Yes | 34c | 54.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb216…e994backed Yes | 22c | 50.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9053…fb1cbacked Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…bb75backed Yes | 27c | 48.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 77c | 47.52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 74c | 46.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 74c | 46.86$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 32c | 35.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked No | 73c | 31.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4013…c4c1backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd234…9bfebacked Yes | 36c | 30.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 80c | 26.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 73c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 19.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 76c | 16.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 23?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 23?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 23?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.