Token Launches · resolved market
Over $6M committed to the Squid public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08e121811aadce53c64e703b8ed7b7eaa85f8810d77c70eda8c9baa529f96f44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,600
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,558
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,600 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x197c…9b94backed Yes | 31c | 1,134$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.58 | 130 | 23.8%31 W · 99 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…0906backed No | 11c | 649.86$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.68 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +12.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x356a…bfeabacked Yes | 63c | 452.07$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.07 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +265%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c23…e487backed Yes | 28c | 412.55$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.07 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 55c | 383$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 337$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f3…e279backed No | 68c | 300$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1214…ebecbacked No | 43c | 287.86$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.81 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +286.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 5c | 199.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -12.9wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 70c | 111$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f2…9bf5backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 70c | 78$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff32…7da9backed No | 28c | 70.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 21c | 66.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc31…3fe8backed No | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 43c | 59.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b88…a191backed No | 30c | 46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead3…b125backed No | 68c | 44.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb187…3abfbacked No | 68c | 44.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c9b…8e49backed No | 68c | 44.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed70…04cebacked No | 68c | 44.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…131ebacked No | 68c | 44.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a02…7c94backed No | 70c | 42.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x612e…7aa4backed No | 70c | 42.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b85…8363backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked No | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 43c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae19…5cb0backed No | 71c | 21.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f0f…b11dbacked No | 55c | 21.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 72cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd20…6159backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…c62ebacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $6M committed to the Squid public sale?this page
- Over $3.5M committed to the Squid public sale?Yes won
- Over $4.5M committed to the Squid public sale?Yes won
- Over $4M committed to the Squid public sale?Yes won
- Over $5.5M committed to the Squid public sale?Yes won
- Over $5M committed to the Squid public sale?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.