Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of July 13 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad39ea4bbbffcd9633f1a36e2986e9a40f835784c38fe47cb381f222439e5630
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,177
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,786
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,177 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Yes | 55c | 642.66$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.69 | 304 | 38.8%118 W · 186 L | +20.0wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 54c | 513.99$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.53 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb307…9c25backed No | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 72c | 270.95$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.42 | 1,265 | 24.5%310 W · 955 L | -56.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 39c | 199.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.99 | 930 | 40.3%375 W · 555 L | -67.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x403f…94f1backed Yes | 54c | 190.02$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.51 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 53c | 84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x566c…3d03backed Yes | 70c | 76.08$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x266b…afaabacked No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…e632backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc31…3fe8backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of July 13 2026?this page
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 Week of July 13 2026?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,250 Week of July 13 2026?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,850 Week of July 13 2026?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 Week of July 13 2026?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,950 Week of July 13 2026?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,050 Week of July 13 2026?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 Week of July 13 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.