Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,950 Week of July 13 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ba28159fbedd60ef91fc1e162ff9e6d999f692fa834c90f1ce66808ff86f724
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,310
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,204
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,310 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 76c | 2,530$1,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.6 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf940…3239backed Yes | 41c | 1,054$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.68 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Yes | 14c | 797.67$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.79 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdd…d359backed Yes | 48c | 617.52$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.34 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 64cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 44c | 582.08$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.59 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Yes | 20c | 521.94$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.06 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x403f…94f1backed Yes | 23c | 382.65$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.24 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed No | 69c | 360.11$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.63 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5154…a301backed Yes | 28c | 295.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +13.2wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…71b6backed No | 41c | 200$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +5.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 42c | 179.66$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.71 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 65c | 170$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.17 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff6…1369backed No | 65c | 169.76$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.76 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 24c | 136.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked No | 79c | 99.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 64 | 75%48 W · 16 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 59c | 97.78$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.69 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd16…fae5backed Yes | 17c | 90.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb307…9c25backed No | 72c | 58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7d…cb08backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x17f4…9d7fbacked No | 77c | 44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f84…b4c4backed Yes | 30c | 40.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x566c…3d03backed Yes | 39c | 37.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc061…a297backed Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 162 | 76.5%124 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 65c | 21.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +27%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 119 | 29.4%35 W · 84 L | -18.7wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,950 Week of July 13 2026?this page
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 Week of July 13 2026?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,250 Week of July 13 2026?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,850 Week of July 13 2026?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 Week of July 13 2026?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of July 13 2026?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,050 Week of July 13 2026?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 Week of July 13 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.