Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21c4f36954640a7d4b9b5ce43902d58705e5eb0bf1b81250b94d62ba578a21ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,548
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 58c | 2,418$1,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005.48 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 64c | 850$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.93 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 29c | 756.97$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.75 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63cc…eec5backed No | 4c | 614.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 63c | 591.57$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.97 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed No | 38c | 419.49$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.81 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 62c | 413.92$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.27 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 16c | 297.93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.07 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 79c | 297.45$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.69 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 28c | 288.95$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.09 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 281.11$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.7 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 76c | 258.55$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.24 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb6…4f98backed No | 45c | 217.82$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.79 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 26c | 197.27$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.57 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 33c | 187$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.71 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 47c | 163$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.17 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed No | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 22c | 160$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 63c | 160$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 15c | 159.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 27c | 156.36$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…31b5backed No | 46c | 153.6$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 95 | 36.8%35 W · 60 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1613…6bb0backed No | 26c | 150.73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc71…5919backed Yes | 74c | 135.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 34c | 134.27$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.67 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 25c | 134.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 73c | 131.18$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked No | 27c | 130.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 76c | 124.73$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f90…e17fbacked No | 28c | 121.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 32c | 121$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 33c | 118.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 30c | 115.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 34c | 105$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked Yes | 70c | 105$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 23c | 104.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 48c | 104.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a13…72cebacked Yes | 49c | 90.22$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.01 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 22c | 86.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc31…3fe8backed No | 30c | 86.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 70c | 81.87$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 54c | 70.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 39c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd46…e514backed No | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -5.7wins | -0.23per pick | 55cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6122…7b8fbacked No | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ca05backed No | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x733c…c0a7backed No | 32c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2415…c70bbacked No | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 28c | 52.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 59c | 47.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa6…3c12backed No | 33c | 44.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…352dbacked No | 26c | 42.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 47c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 32c | 41.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 26c | 41.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 77c | 41.17$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 48c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 44c | 40.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc508…70acbacked No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x296e…0b9abacked No | 33c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 40c | 36.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 48c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 37c | 33.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 49c | 32.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…90edbacked Yes | 70c | 30.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…d610backed Yes | 70c | 28.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed No | 44c | 26.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…66f7backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…6004backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x740d…176dbacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 68c | 16.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 23?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 23?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 23?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.