Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc7d833e40507d6c24aef4e09dd202704ec02cc660726d4daf6175b863d59e0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,336
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 22c | 434.11$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.66 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 225.84$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.09 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 175.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.35 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 42c | 171$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.82 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 39c | 102.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 40c | 99.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 40c | 99.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 89.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.45 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 59c | 87.8$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 29c | 83.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.01 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 56c | 82.33$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 40c | 81.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf9…1ffabacked Yes | 41c | 78.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15c0…befdbacked Yes | 40c | 73.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 61c | 73.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 57c | 69.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 38c | 67.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 80c | 63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 60c | 61.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9599…3daebacked Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed Yes | 38c | 57.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 35c | 57.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 40c | 51.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 44c | 50.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 55c | 49.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34b0…05a6backed Yes | 37c | 46.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 44.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 50c | 42.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 50c | 38.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 58c | 38.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9248…6955backed Yes | 42c | 38.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 51c | 37.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2b…74acbacked Yes | 41c | 36.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc31…3fe8backed No | 60c | 36.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 36c | 34.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 40c | 34.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…640cbacked Yes | 46c | 34.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 59c | 33.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed Yes | 47c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…a35ebacked No | 63c | 31.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 63c | 29.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 68c | 29.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 63c | 28.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 60c | 26.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 56c | 26.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3d…d3e9backed Yes | 58c | 25.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 79 | 68.4%54 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 60c | 21.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 60c | 20.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 66c | 18.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 60c | 16.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.