MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7160ada6bdeb5f66bffcd55bdefac75ac893aa94daa0c58b3f20d5b51a6ed2f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,174
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,174 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 44c | 4,922$2,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,183.86 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 58c | 4,426$2,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,865.5 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 49c | 4,089$2,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,009.09 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 60c | 3,533$2,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,396.05 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 57c | 1,953$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.1 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…345cbacked Over | 45c | 1,849$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 54c | 1,668$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.89 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 39c | 1,000$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.83 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 48c | 898.73$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.75 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8400…274cbacked Over | 35c | 581.8$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.94 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd360…2eabbacked Over | 48c | 562.5$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 549.21$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.64 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee0…d6a6backed Under | 62c | 500$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 114 | 64%73 W · 41 L | +12.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Over | 46c | 499.98$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.99 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 53c | 401.85$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.85 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 60c | 346.92$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.86 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 47c | 319.15$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 45c | 299.97$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.99 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Over | 39c | 223.1$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.01 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefd3…bed8backed Over | 51c | 215.69$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 46c | 210.83$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.98 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 39c | 202.49$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.04 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 45c | 199$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.55 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x065c…47debacked Under | 54c | 169.98$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.33 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 62c | 138.39$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.68 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Over | 39c | 134.12$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.31 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Under | 54c | 134$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.64 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 46c | 132.43$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.93 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 38c | 125$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 48c | 118$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.94 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 33c | 112$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Over | 38c | 98.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 61c | 92.09$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.53 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 46c | 72.32$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 45c | 70.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 59c | 67.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 40c | 51.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb099…b313backed Over | 50c | 49.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed9f…b19dbacked Under | 54c | 48.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Over | 45c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 47c | 38.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 68c | 36.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…eeb9backed Under | 56c | 35.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…c664backed Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | -46.7wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xad6f…cc7cbacked Over | 42c | 29.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6f…6572backed Over | 38c | 29.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Over | 52c | 28.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ae…61b5backed Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…7ac4backed Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 62c | 27.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 61c | 25.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Over | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Over | 42c | 24.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4954…ac42backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 64c | 18.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0df0…1376backed Under | 66c | 16.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.