MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e9695e7a0838ba3f4158ce342858ce991b3f6d7dfd3732da99739f74308cf0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Cleveland Guardians, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,500
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,500 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 10,638$6,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,308.22 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 3,646$1,751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,894.87 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cleveland Guardians | 34c | 3,565$1,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,357.97 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cleveland Guardians | 50c | 3,366$1,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,669.36 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 1,397$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.29 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 1,264$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.93 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f1…e67bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 52c | 1,149$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.36 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 996.06$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.52 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Minnesota Twins | 31c | 993.07$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.61 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Minnesota Twins | 55c | 814$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.92 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 712.31$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.39 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 576.35$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.12 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb1…eac3backed Cleveland Guardians | 29c | 499.97$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.98 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x516a…a2edbacked Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 490$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Minnesota Twins | 49c | 481.97$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.76 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Minnesota Twins | 37c | 439.74$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.51 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Minnesota Twins | 60c | 390.29$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.77 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d06…755bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 72c | 380.29$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.01 | 89 | 61.8%55 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Minnesota Twins | 48c | 350.03$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.7 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Cleveland Guardians | 57c | 348.75$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.39 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 300$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Minnesota Twins | 63c | 210$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.3 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 198$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.81 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Cleveland Guardians | 47c | 146$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.05 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 131.71$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.71 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Minnesota Twins | 50c | 127.32$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.07 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Cleveland Guardians | 32c | 121.51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.62 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 116.2$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.16 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Minnesota Twins | 64c | 115.66$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.56 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x543b…e23dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 109.01$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.32 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Minnesota Twins | 50c | 104.8$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.54 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Minnesota Twins | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.26 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…17a9backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 99.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 145 | 59.3%86 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 93.6$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.39 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Minnesota Twins | 49c | 92.9$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 85.71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.71 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 83.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.93 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 80.3$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 79.77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.86 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…932fbacked Minnesota Twins | 60c | 78.86$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Minnesota Twins | 65c | 58.53$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 56.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 52.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Minnesota Twins | 46c | 49.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Cleveland Guardians | 33c | 44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 42.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a55…a82abacked Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 36.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Minnesota Twins | 41c | 36.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…5cd4backed Cleveland Guardians | 51c | 35.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Minnesota Twins | 34c | 32.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 31.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Minnesota Twins | 48c | 30.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 30.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaa…7a29backed Cleveland Guardians | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +72%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 29.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea6f…6572backed Minnesota Twins | 53c | 28.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed77…2b75backed Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 26.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +117.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 25.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 273 | 45.4%124 W · 149 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x912d…9b7fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb099…b313backed Cleveland Guardians | 68c | 21.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.