South American Leagues · resolved market
CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. Recoleta FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56a2f643a140a5ef0e131583ffebd19b7b7d24e1beffa8144d4ea7a333599544
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,531
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,531 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa700…102bbacked Over | 1c | 2,475$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 106 | 18.9%20 W · 86 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 29c | 2,222$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,575.42 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 66c | 1,938$1,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,287.74 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 39c | 1,162$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.98 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 71c | 943.86$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.64 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 42c | 700$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 116 | 18.1%21 W · 95 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 65c | 495.55$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.2 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e2…d3abbacked Under | 28c | 357.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.11 | 124 | 14.5%18 W · 106 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 56c | 216.2$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.07 | 157 | 68.2%107 W · 50 L | +21.8wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Over | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 186 | 31.2%58 W · 128 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5833…4893backed Over | 70c | 200$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 38c | 197.25$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8b…cb2cbacked Under | 18c | 145.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.44 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1c…3347backed Over | 17c | 137.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 215 | 38.1%82 W · 133 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8a…7a39backed Over | 74c | 135$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 72c | 133.38$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.67 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46cd…6b95backed Under | 57c | 112.91$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.43 | 123 | 40.7%50 W · 73 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4658backed Over | 73c | 106.37$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.65 | 66 | 68.2%45 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Over | 70c | 100.77$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.97 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 68c | 99.97$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.98 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac7b…7cebbacked Over | 24c | 90.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c3…3e18backed Under | 29c | 78.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.59 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2c…9d16backed Under | 28c | 70.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.67 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Over | 69c | 68$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf83…3385backed Over | 41c | 63.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa372…65bbbacked Under | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +133.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Over | 72c | 55.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Under | 39c | 43.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0171…0a60backed Under | 36c | 38.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 73c | 34.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbee0…7dffbacked Over | 45c | 31.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 56c | 31.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 313 | 55.6%174 W · 139 L | +24.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x831c…ce7dbacked Over | 76c | 26.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…1260backed Over | 77c | 25.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 72c | 24.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 335 | 60.9%204 W · 131 L | +18.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa1…0193backed Over | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 73c | 22.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 70c | 22.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…5da3backed Over | 64c | 18.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 71c | 14.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. Recoleta FC: O/U 1.5this page
- CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. Recoleta FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. Recoleta FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. Recoleta FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. Recoleta FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. Recoleta FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. Recoleta FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CA San Lorenzo de Almagro (-1.5)Recoleta FC won
- Spread: Recoleta FC (-1.5)CA San Lorenzo de Almagro won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.