Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x837ca30dc28e60a749102c1ffae13c9466272bbc34022377e48f730585b54af9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,863
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,720
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,863 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 37c | 535.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 18c | 350.01$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.03 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed No | 58c | 344.79$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.81 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 11c | 329.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 197.33$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.48 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 40c | 190.34$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.61 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 64c | 175$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.55 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 15c | 157.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 139.29$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.08 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 35c | 136$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…6ed2backed Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85ae…0529backed Yes | 25c | 125.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 28c | 110.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 100.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.54 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f7…4af7backed Yes | 35c | 94.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 90$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 69c | 88.27$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 87.58$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 79.8$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x375b…0ebbbacked Yes | 38c | 79.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 62c | 64.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2a…a44dbacked Yes | 22c | 54.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 42c | 47.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 61c | 44.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 26c | 42.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 63c | 41.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 63c | 41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 78c | 39.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 62c | 38.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…ddeabacked Yes | 38c | 35.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 29c | 35.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 59c | 33.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 33.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 60c | 30.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 80c | 29.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa23e…bcf5backed Yes | 36c | 28.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe26b…16e6backed No | 62c | 27.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 72c | 27.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 27.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 73c | 26.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 76c | 26.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 59c | 25.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 25.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 62c | 21.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 62c | 21.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 62c | 21.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7f…c50abacked No | 77c | 19.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 67c | 17.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 59c | 17.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 67c | 16.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C or below on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on August 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.