Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21896717fbda062ed75a30481ebd6a5c17594e6ad439d827a181b11bef2a9e28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,124
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,023
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,124 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 39c | 709.91$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.93 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 693.38$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 21c | 624.56$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.7 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 59c | 453.67$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.03 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x84b2…7f85backed Yes | 46c | 310.37$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.03 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 57cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 63c | 297.42$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.19 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 43c | 282.62$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.74 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes | 38c | 263.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.15 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 52c | 235$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.66 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 27c | 215$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.46 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 17c | 214.24$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 74c | 197.85$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.9 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3427…2ff7backed No | 55c | 163.63$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 38c | 160.62$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.53 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 55c | 154.87$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.08 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 32c | 152.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 144.02$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 19c | 144$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.46 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 69c | 143.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.91 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 46c | 139.98$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.31 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2749…e996backed Yes | 40c | 124.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.98 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 71c | 114.77$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 110$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.01 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 57c | 103.39$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.21 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 41c | 99.34$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 69c | 89.77$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.68 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 86$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 64c | 75.77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 49c | 74.81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 64c | 68.91$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 54c | 67.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 56c | 67.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 79c | 63.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 62.32$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 44c | 56.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53e1…f420backed No | 53c | 54.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 38c | 51.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 21c | 49.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 41c | 45.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 44.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 43.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…8c10backed No | 27c | 42.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 93 | 66.7%62 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 78c | 36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 77c | 34.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 33.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…f288backed No | 76c | 32.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed No | 72c | 31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 60c | 31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb5…6210backed Yes | 38c | 30.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 58c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 60c | 27.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a48…08c5backed Yes | 80c | 27.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 76c | 24.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 24.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 62c | 22.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 63c | 22.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 22.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 54c | 22.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 59c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 65c | 20.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…9e0cbacked No | 62c | 20.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98df…7870backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x839e…8a61backed No | 59c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 60c | 19.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098d…6cc2backed Yes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 38 | 81.6%31 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed No | 74c | 18.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 80c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8d…f707backed No | 60c | 17.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…9d4cbacked Yes | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 16.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x40be…e067backed Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 79°F or below on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.