Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc0fee0756e3083da50c5fe387b680aa97cb49e4df2de0c56df51efa3fba6a02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,101
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,101 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes | 7c | 1,223$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.62 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…b0c7backed No | 59c | 1,072$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.93 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +193.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 42c | 863.74$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.14 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 725.71$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.54 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 591.24$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.34 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 4c | 554.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed Yes | 41c | 510$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.2 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 8c | 510$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 69c | 370.13$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.91 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 4c | 285.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 10c | 243.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 35c | 222$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.69 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 72c | 200$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…465dbacked Yes | 26c | 188.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 35c | 165$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.75 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2749…e996backed Yes | 33c | 151.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked Yes | 8c | 147$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 9c | 129.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 115.39$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.16 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 21c | 94.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 78c | 89.77$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2377…c69cbacked Yes | 17c | 89.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 84.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.02 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 16c | 78.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 72.69$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4c…2918backed Yes | 32c | 72.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 15c | 72.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 31c | 68.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 74c | 67.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 31c | 64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 48.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 67c | 46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 78c | 43.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 73c | 41.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 68c | 38.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 73c | 37.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 55c | 36.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 45c | 33.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9707…6fbdbacked Yes | 42c | 23.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 69c | 20.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 64c | 19.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 79°F or below on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on August 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.