Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ca4d1a00a6feaf3ce9bf6fd50d4612b7387373da25c253467bd75352b3b82d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,434
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,434 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 34c | 666.14$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.92 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 24c | 492.25$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.96 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 78c | 225.58$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.58 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 37c | 215.55$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 206.52$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.91 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3a…d3e3backed No | 79c | 183.48$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 57 | 86%49 W · 8 L | +11.2wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 8c | 179.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed No | 57c | 175.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.43 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 52c | 174.31$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.73 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 39c | 150.29$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.93 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 60c | 146.53$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.68 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 40c | 143.49$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.23 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 78c | 129.95$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 24c | 124.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 115.48$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 114.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 78c | 110.67$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 44c | 97.82$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 76c | 89.78$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 86$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 52c | 74.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9281…60febacked Yes | 61c | 69.35$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 68.68$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 37c | 67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 48c | 66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ac…99ddbacked Yes | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 32c | 58.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 23c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed No | 58c | 52.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 52c | 52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 43c | 48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 25c | 47.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b88…63dfbacked Yes | 43c | 46.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52fe…c258backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 78c | 45.71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 31c | 42.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 73c | 39.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 31.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 43c | 31.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed No | 74c | 27.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 65c | 26.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 78c | 24.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…8aedbacked No | 79c | 24.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 24.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 68c | 23.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x839e…8a61backed No | 79c | 20.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…7481backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 19.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.79 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 79°F or below on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on August 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.