MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f9806d51bb99f4bfc748415ea481f393b50b4a48416aa562fb4d3e8acfb76b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Miami Marlins, Texas Rangers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,921
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,449
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,921 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Texas Rangers | 58c | 5,641$3,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,280.1 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 5,000$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,900 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Texas Rangers | 58c | 2,476$1,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,435.97 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Miami Marlins | 42c | 2,000$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 54c | 1,551$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.09 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Texas Rangers | 57c | 529.12$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.12 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x021c…232fbacked Miami Marlins | 41c | 499.97$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.98 | 178 | 53.4%95 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Texas Rangers | 54c | 475.6$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.64 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c10…b6a4backed Miami Marlins | 43c | 416.63$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.63 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda9e…7b03backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 373.38$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.56 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Texas Rangers | 54c | 286.72$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.56 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Texas Rangers | 57c | 259.9$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.4 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Miami Marlins | 40c | 202.34$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.62 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 199.35$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.71 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Texas Rangers | 60c | 193.88$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.43 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Texas Rangers | 57c | 181.62$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.71 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Miami Marlins | 67c | 170.98$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.42 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52be…801ebacked Miami Marlins | 43c | 145.79$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.1 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Miami Marlins | 42c | 130$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.4 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Miami Marlins | 43c | 114.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.96 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Miami Marlins | 41c | 102.65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.18 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Miami Marlins | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Texas Rangers | 59c | 96.81$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f36…905fbacked Miami Marlins | 45c | 88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Texas Rangers | 59c | 87.27$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.49 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Miami Marlins | 54c | 86.68$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Texas Rangers | 58c | 85.32$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Miami Marlins | 53c | 78$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Texas Rangers | 64c | 62.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Miami Marlins | 46c | 62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…8436backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins | 53c | 41.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Texas Rangers | 60c | 41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Texas Rangers | 60c | 37.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Texas Rangers | 59c | 36.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Miami Marlins | 45c | 36.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab96…989fbacked Miami Marlins | 41c | 30.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Miami Marlins | 42c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Miami Marlins | 39c | 27.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 816 | 51.8%423 W · 393 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc622…8f86backed Texas Rangers | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Texas Rangers | 68c | 23.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Texas Rangers | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a9…6f76backed Texas Rangers | 59c | 19.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Texas Rangers | 65c | 18.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Texas Rangers | 58c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Texas Rangers | 59c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.