TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Miami Marlinsof Texas Rangers, Miami Marlins
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,419
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,303

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,419 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x44f0…432cbacked Texas Rangers30c3,817$1,145 inLost-$1,144.9541051.7%212 W · 198 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins70c3,508$2,455 inWon+$1,052.2811,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Texas Rangers2c696$14 inLost-$13.9270737.6%266 W · 441 L+24.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Texas Rangers17c505$86 inLost-$85.94,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Miami Marlins70c300$210 inWon+$906,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Texas Rangers19c104.49$19 inLost-$19.341,14731.6%362 W · 785 L-97.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Miami Marlins64c82$52 inWon+$29.892,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Miami Marlins66c80.68$53 inWon+$27.432,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Texas Rangers30c73.36$22 inLost-$22.013,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins69c46$32 inWon+$14.188,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1631…072dbacked Miami Marlins76c29.89$23 inWon+$7.1777353.9%417 W · 356 L+35.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe134…f6dabacked Miami Marlins69c23.54$16 inWon+$7.3674657.8%431 W · 315 L-9.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0009…5497backed Miami Marlins75c21.16$16 inWon+$5.2929549.8%147 W · 148 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Miami Marlins67c20$13 inWon+$6.62,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc365…2e53backed Miami Marlins72c14$10 inWon+$3.921,60753.2%855 W · 752 L+74.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.