MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8de45218182b26da9a18c08075c777f8e8ba6c2f0e1fad4eab5b9e3e93d22899
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas Rangersof Miami Marlins, Texas Rangers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,735
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,379
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,735 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Miami Marlins | 73c | 9,225$6,734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,734.01 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Texas Rangers | 28c | 6,949$1,959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,989.81 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 68c | 4,440$3,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,007.39 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0432…98bbbacked Miami Marlins | 6c | 3,840$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9f…2087backed Miami Marlins | 6c | 3,200$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Texas Rangers | 27c | 1,799$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,312.97 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Texas Rangers | 27c | 1,732$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,269.33 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Miami Marlins | 74c | 1,724$1,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,274.6 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Texas Rangers | 28c | 1,722$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,234.68 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Texas Rangers | 27c | 1,376$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,004.27 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x773c…cf18backed Miami Marlins | 23c | 1,317$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…cf79backed Miami Marlins | 7c | 1,200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 9cpaid | +352.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Texas Rangers | 27c | 1,077$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.21 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Texas Rangers | 26c | 730.77$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.77 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Texas Rangers | 77c | 600$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…a1adbacked Miami Marlins | 68c | 599.53$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.17 | 132 | 64.4%85 W · 47 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Texas Rangers | 26c | 439.27$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.06 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff2…2e27backed Miami Marlins | 23c | 336.52$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Texas Rangers | 58c | 290.64$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.33 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Miami Marlins | 25c | 275$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.75 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Texas Rangers | 26c | 193.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.3 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Texas Rangers | 27c | 189.38$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.25 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Texas Rangers | 19c | 177$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.05 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Miami Marlins | 71c | 173.13$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.27 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Miami Marlins | 23c | 172$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…0adfbacked Texas Rangers | 30c | 161.52$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.47 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Miami Marlins | 25c | 156$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Texas Rangers | 31c | 150.63$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.63 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Texas Rangers | 33c | 148.71$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.32 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Texas Rangers | 26c | 148.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.89 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Texas Rangers | 18c | 138.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.2 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Miami Marlins | 63c | 104.84$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.78 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Miami Marlins | 15c | 89.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Texas Rangers | 26c | 86.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.81 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Miami Marlins | 23c | 86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Texas Rangers | 26c | 79.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.17 | 405 | 54.8%222 W · 183 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Miami Marlins | 73c | 76.76$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.38 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Texas Rangers | 27c | 72.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.73 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc29f…dc4ebacked Texas Rangers | 27c | 70.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.37 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Miami Marlins | 25c | 69.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Texas Rangers | 80c | 65.78$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Texas Rangers | 75c | 61$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x982c…0d6ebacked Texas Rangers | 28c | 59.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0098…71e0backed Texas Rangers | 27c | 56.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 152 | 52%79 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…8de4backed Texas Rangers | 27c | 47.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.66 | 185 | 51.4%95 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Miami Marlins | 75c | 45.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3186…2a53backed Miami Marlins | 58c | 43.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf88…f6b5backed Texas Rangers | 29c | 43.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Miami Marlins | 67c | 22.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5b…3b06backed Miami Marlins | 75c | 18.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Miami Marlins | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Miami Marlins | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)this page
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.