TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Texas Rangersof Miami Marlins, Texas Rangers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,188
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,202

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,188 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x161a…4103backed Miami Marlins69c913$629 inLost-$629.274,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Miami Marlins21c753.63$159 inLost-$159.486,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Texas Rangers31c615.47$193 inWon+$422.6811,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Texas Rangers34c500$170 inWon+$33091252.4%478 W · 434 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Texas Rangers32c486.28$156 inWon+$330.673,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Miami Marlins71c399$283 inLost-$283.293,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf874…def4backed Miami Marlins68c294.18$200 inLost-$20029656.1%166 W · 130 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Miami Marlins21c252.87$53 inLost-$53.12,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Miami Marlins19c222.96$42 inLost-$42.362,14439.6%849 W · 1,295 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Texas Rangers31c196.99$61 inWon+$136.058,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Texas Rangers35c193.29$67 inWon+$125.941,14731.6%362 W · 785 L-97.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Texas Rangers32c193.27$63 inWon+$130.5410,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Miami Marlins69c140.84$97 inLost-$97.1831848.7%155 W · 163 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46b1…428cbacked Miami Marlins69c73.88$51 inLost-$50.7919163.4%121 W · 70 L+14.3wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+10.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Miami Marlins58c73.71$43 inLost-$42.956,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Miami Marlins64c52.85$34 inLost-$34.061,37950.6%698 W · 681 L-2.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2160…4c78backed Texas Rangers32c50.25$16 inWon+$34.178056.3%45 W · 35 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Texas Rangers48c42.54$20 inWon+$22.084,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17d7…9e1ebacked Miami Marlins69c36.66$25 inLost-$25.41,00058.8%588 W · 412 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc6d…31cebacked Texas Rangers55c22.35$12 inWon+$10.0313946.8%65 W · 74 L+12.8wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+30.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2792…c4f6backed Miami Marlins70c18.48$13 inLost-$12.973949.8%368 W · 371 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.