MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc305cf2ede0322d51a259c7e01e41fe9026307822d708849ff544a19b80f61ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas Rangersof Miami Marlins, Texas Rangers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,877
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,877 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Texas Rangers | 77c | 7,923$6,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,828.9 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 24c | 4,042$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.76 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Miami Marlins | 23c | 2,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins | 24c | 1,524$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.87 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Texas Rangers | 71c | 1,048$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.78 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Miami Marlins | 49c | 1,017$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.11 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Texas Rangers | 24c | 848.7$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.72 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Miami Marlins | 21c | 687.39$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.51 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Texas Rangers | 69c | 506$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.44 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Miami Marlins | 29c | 345.85$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.15 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Miami Marlins | 23c | 237.39$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Miami Marlins | 31c | 220.73$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Miami Marlins | 29c | 192.52$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.69 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Miami Marlins | 31c | 189.54$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.98 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Miami Marlins | 59c | 176$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.84 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed Texas Rangers | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Texas Rangers | 70c | 102.85$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Miami Marlins | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Miami Marlins | 21c | 90.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Miami Marlins | 30c | 74.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Texas Rangers | 73c | 69.23$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dff…7fecbacked Miami Marlins | 22c | 60.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Miami Marlins | 22c | 60.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Texas Rangers | 72c | 55.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Texas Rangers | 67c | 47.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…4c78backed Miami Marlins | 30c | 35.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Miami Marlins | 33c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Texas Rangers | 78c | 23.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a9…6f76backed Texas Rangers | 70c | 16.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Texas Rangers | 80c | 16.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Texas Rangers | 72c | 15.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.