South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: Fluminense FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x553742a7f2a63121b3e5e48108697b32aa389ae70d7b9ef028435c56e00e083a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Deportivo La Guaira FCof Fluminense FC, Deportivo La Guaira FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,530
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,530 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x300b…f636backed Fluminense FC | 39c | 618.8$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.33 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc48…c120backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 61c | 600$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Fluminense FC | 39c | 446.32$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.31 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e2…d472backed Fluminense FC | 40c | 244.07$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.78 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 61c | 236.12$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.05 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Deportivo La Guaira FC | 61c | 204$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.56 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 61c | 204$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.56 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Deportivo La Guaira FC | 71c | 188$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.52 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Fluminense FC | 31c | 186.81$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.16 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Fluminense FC | 39c | 179.45$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.66 | 416 | 54.3%226 W · 190 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Deportivo La Guaira FC | 61c | 162.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.61 | 317 | 45.1%143 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Deportivo La Guaira FC | 59c | 134.4$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.78 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc338…974ebacked Fluminense FC | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1edb…a60bbacked Deportivo La Guaira FC | 61c | 102.62$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Fluminense FC | 31c | 94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 402 | 42%169 W · 233 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Fluminense FC | 39c | 87.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Fluminense FC | 33c | 87.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 61c | 80.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ce…e232backed Fluminense FC | 31c | 74.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57af…81cebacked Fluminense FC | 41c | 61.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…fd79backed Fluminense FC | 40c | 52.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Fluminense FC | 32c | 51.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 61c | 50.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d5…41b8backed Fluminense FC | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Fluminense FC | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +35%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Deportivo La Guaira FC | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c59…cdd8backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 61c | 48.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked Deportivo La Guaira FC | 61c | 39.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 129 | 58.1%75 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 60c | 27.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff56…1e6fbacked Deportivo La Guaira FC | 72c | 26.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x446d…a0b2backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…3048backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Deportivo La Guaira FC | 73c | 19.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Fluminense FC (-2.5)this page
- Fluminense FC vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Fluminense FC vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Fluminense FC vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Fluminense FC vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Fluminense FC vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Fluminense FC vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Fluminense FC (-1.5)Fluminense FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.