South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: Fluminense FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15b6ea19b42939758a8f83c021d5def1dcc4a217e10ec6a4dfe92803ce59753c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fluminense FCof Fluminense FC, Deportivo La Guaira FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,382
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x433c…81eabacked Fluminense FC | 64c | 5,042$3,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,828.32 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 36c | 4,206$1,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,494.66 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…f636backed Fluminense FC | 65c | 2,609$1,694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915.51 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…3048backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 37c | 1,800$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 37c | 1,050$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.5 | 218 | 44.5%97 W · 121 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Fluminense FC | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 37c | 937.27$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.81 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e93…79f3backed Fluminense FC | 60c | 835.63$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.26 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Fluminense FC | 76c | 807.84$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.92 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3df…9945backed Fluminense FC | 64c | 781.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…ef9ebacked Fluminense FC | 64c | 781.25$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.25 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 38c | 756.51$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.91 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 47c | 596.99$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.58 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Fluminense FC | 75c | 418.87$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.87 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…c069backed Fluminense FC | 64c | 403.04$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…0919backed Fluminense FC | 64c | 403.03$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 37c | 391.18$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.08 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Deportivo La Guaira FC | 35c | 363.95$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.4 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 36c | 353.05$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.53 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 37c | 337$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.69 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Fluminense FC | 62c | 299.99$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.15 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 38c | 299.45$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.52 | 92 | 29.3%27 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Fluminense FC | 67c | 291.93$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.76 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ba…b99abacked Fluminense FC | 52c | 269.23$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.23 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca3…f975backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 53c | 254.67$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 36c | 185$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Fluminense FC | 62c | 179.99$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 416 | 54.3%226 W · 190 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 36c | 162.01$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.49 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Fluminense FC | 62c | 153.44$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.23 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 42c | 116.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Fluminense FC | 63c | 109.89$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.66 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 36c | 81.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57af…81cebacked Fluminense FC | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f4…e4cbbacked Fluminense FC | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 35c | 78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 296 | 53%157 W · 139 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 35c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Fluminense FC | 55c | 72.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 402 | 42%169 W · 233 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…fd79backed Fluminense FC | 64c | 70.31$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | -7.6wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b35…1dcebacked Deportivo La Guaira FC | 32c | 59.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe22f…49b1backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 32c | 59.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Deportivo La Guaira FC | 27c | 42.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Fluminense FC | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0477…631cbacked Fluminense FC | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…39e0backed Fluminense FC | 52c | 28.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +8.0wins | +0.28per pick | 41cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Fluminense FC | 76c | 19.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd074…5a54backed Fluminense FC | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 44 | 84.1%37 W · 7 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa16b…7350backed Fluminense FC | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 60cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Fluminense FC (-1.5)this page
- Fluminense FC vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Fluminense FC vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Fluminense FC vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Fluminense FC vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Fluminense FC vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Fluminense FC vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Fluminense FC (-2.5)Deportivo La Guaira FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.