South American Leagues · resolved market
Fluminense FC vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd5fab3ee49942391871ce825ca6c95bb7a632129327e47b63a9c83b72e174cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,081
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,081 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x954e…927fbacked No | 61c | 1,100$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 39c | 1,092$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.16 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed No | 62c | 729.9$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Yes | 38c | 536.85$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.8 | 213 | 49.8%106 W · 107 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Yes | 42c | 512.25$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.38 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 58c | 462.5$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.25 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed No | 62c | 320.36$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.72 | 129 | 45%58 W · 71 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 38c | 300$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 92 | 29.3%27 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 39c | 300$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 62c | 258$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.09 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 61c | 224.37$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.91 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed No | 62c | 207.81$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.82 | 104 | 50%52 W · 52 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Yes | 38c | 199.97$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.58 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed No | 62c | 142.89$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.46 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed No | 61c | 132.07$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.56 | 335 | 60.9%204 W · 131 L | +18.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdd…c6bbbacked Yes | 38c | 78.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.19 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f76…3c44backed No | 62c | 72.73$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 37c | 71.05$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.76 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 61c | 55.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed No | 62c | 47.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked No | 62c | 46.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ac…e602backed No | 62c | 46.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed No | 62c | 46.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae4…e4a2backed No | 62c | 46.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…7f72backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 117 | 47.9%56 W · 61 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0614…ff8bbacked Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 60c | 37.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 388 | 61.3%238 W · 150 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…28b8backed No | 62c | 26.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 56c | 22.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 296 | 53%157 W · 139 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…33c9backed No | 61c | 19.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +5.6wins | +0.23per pick | 56cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9369…6916backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fluminense FC vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Fluminense FC vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Fluminense FC vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Fluminense FC vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Fluminense FC vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Fluminense FC vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Fluminense FC (-1.5)Fluminense FC won
- Spread: Fluminense FC (-2.5)Deportivo La Guaira FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.