South American Leagues · resolved market
Fluminense FC vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69e7503c5ff0197f5d25481b5bd770af3270f72ff01bdb5385bbd07cd9d9f8fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,384
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,384 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2f6…679ebacked Over | 65c | 1,111$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.84 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Under | 9c | 658.28$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.01 | 92 | 29.3%27 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…9709backed Under | 38c | 601.5$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.54 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 37c | 463$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.31 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under | 36c | 309.69$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.49 | 110 | 59.1%65 W · 45 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 62c | 269.77$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.51 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 35c | 253.68$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.81 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 63c | 233$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.21 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 63c | 187$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.27 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 65c | 150.69$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.74 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Under | 39c | 124.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x140e…cf85backed Over | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 35c | 99.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Over | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 32c | 73.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…4ad6backed Over | 68c | 73.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed Under | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fe…1471backed Under | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 35c | 53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 35c | 49.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 62c | 49.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 335 | 60.9%204 W · 131 L | +18.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 62c | 49.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Over | 62c | 24.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 388 | 61.3%238 W · 150 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Over | 62c | 20.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 104 | 50%52 W · 52 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fluminense FC vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Fluminense FC vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Fluminense FC vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Fluminense FC vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Fluminense FC vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Fluminense FC vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Fluminense FC (-1.5)Fluminense FC won
- Spread: Fluminense FC (-2.5)Deportivo La Guaira FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.