South American Leagues · resolved market
Fluminense FC vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93a3c8b5dee024c18feff6065af58ff5348de60ba43bf97fc1893aa008bf52b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,494
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 53c | 5,061$2,682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,378.52 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 47c | 3,735$1,751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,750.77 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 11c | 1,473$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.75 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 47c | 1,331$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.23 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Over | 28c | 1,071$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 199 | 63.8%127 W · 72 L | +19.3wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 79c | 983.93$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.57 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 23c | 900.22$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.05 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf83…3385backed Over | 37c | 675$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.75 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed07…886abacked Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a47…3b21backed Under | 54c | 583$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.34 | 127 | 54.3%69 W · 58 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Under | 53c | 562.97$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.6 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0f…0e48backed Under | 68c | 559.99$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.74 | 124 | 34.7%43 W · 81 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e2…d3abbacked Over | 22c | 454.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 124 | 14.5%18 W · 106 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 58c | 420$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.6 | 163 | 49.1%80 W · 83 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x482a…c85dbacked Under | 72c | 366.41$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.73 | 89 | 28.1%25 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1c…3347backed Over | 41c | 276.43$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.62 | 215 | 38.1%82 W · 133 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Over | 55c | 261.82$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 88 | 87.5%77 W · 11 L | +19.9wins | +0.23per pick | 65cpaid | +42%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed Under | 78c | 221.72$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.78 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Over | 22c | 211.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.78 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | -7.6wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 209$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.5 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked Under | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 189 | 59.3%112 W · 77 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 56c | 196.72$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.56 | 404 | 51.2%207 W · 197 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Over | 25c | 196.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0e97…8ffabacked Under | 64c | 190.08$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.64 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 44c | 179.89$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.92 | 293 | 62.5%183 W · 110 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 78c | 135.99$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…3c50backed Under | 72c | 135.13$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 42c | 129$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.82 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa69…02c1backed Under | 68c | 121.17$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.65 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +4.3wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75f0…2b66backed Under | 72c | 112.35$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d5…36bfbacked Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddf1…a604backed Under | 72c | 68.48$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 53c | 62.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 22c | 61.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Over | 48c | 52.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 92 | 29.3%27 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce8b…738abacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ec…a9c4backed Over | 70c | 48.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +6.2wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +93%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 41c | 42.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 78c | 30.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb435…b97cbacked Over | 46c | 30.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 308 | 58.4%180 W · 128 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa237…d59abacked Under | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Over | 44c | 29.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -16.3wins | -0.36per pick | 43cpaid | -90.1%equal weight | 24-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Under | 54c | 21.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 77c | 20.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 424 | 62.3%264 W · 160 L | +24.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 194 | 60.3%117 W · 77 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 76c | 14.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fluminense FC vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Fluminense FC vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Fluminense FC vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Fluminense FC vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Fluminense FC vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Fluminense FC vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Fluminense FC (-1.5)Fluminense FC won
- Spread: Fluminense FC (-2.5)Deportivo La Guaira FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.