AI · resolved market
Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $8.0B?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x034db17cf7879f34ca7ff90814d7bdbf4bb1b0081de899de1dedeb5bee08d414
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,454
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,191
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,454 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 47c | 1,934$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.47 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 56c | 692.22$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.21 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed No | 39c | 242.32$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.7 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes | 44c | 230$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.7 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 59c | 141.69$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.6 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 50c | 140$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 62c | 134.37$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 59c | 120$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -11.8wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 57c | 112$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.89 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…64f0backed No | 52c | 94.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…73b0backed No | 18c | 93.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8802…63eebacked Yes | 56c | 91.87$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4222…aaa8backed Yes | 56c | 85.86$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 42c | 84.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 62 | 16.1%10 W · 52 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 22c | 84.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…6a52backed Yes | 55c | 84.65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 64c | 79.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a3…c5c8backed Yes | 56c | 79.39$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1baa…1f49backed Yes | 56c | 78.41$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5496…079cbacked Yes | 56c | 78.26$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b1…fac2backed Yes | 56c | 77.09$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd419…f051backed Yes | 56c | 71.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 35c | 67.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…83e7backed Yes | 56c | 65.51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa2…41acbacked Yes | 56c | 65.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed No | 37c | 65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…153fbacked Yes | 56c | 62.39$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc01d…6128backed Yes | 56c | 61.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb714…79e0backed Yes | 56c | 61.71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 45c | 57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bf…3387backed No | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 52c | 50.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdf…336cbacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 40c | 45.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58bb…a539backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68f7…8aacbacked Yes | 80c | 39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +150.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…eb71backed No | 37c | 33.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed No | 40c | 32.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 61c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3e20backed Yes | 48c | 27.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b30…100fbacked No | 45c | 24.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed No | 48c | 20.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 67 | 65.7%44 W · 23 L | +13.8wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…87e1backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x319b…f04ebacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0607…e0e3backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $8.0B?this page
- Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $7.0B?Yes won
- Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $7.5B?Yes won
- Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $8.5B?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.