AI · resolved market
Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $8.5B?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c2943737af6ce95bd29ff1f3f6fbedbbc92ad7e19364fa1db2b8e2fb1a6a03a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,181
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,181 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 32c | 938.62$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.4 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 370.58$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.01 | 62 | 16.1%10 W · 52 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed No | 78c | 295.99$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.22 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 62c | 275$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.5 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda1b…e87abacked Yes | 63c | 237.6$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07e0…1db9backed Yes | 23c | 221$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.38 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed No | 61c | 189.8$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.38 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68f7…8aacbacked Yes | 27c | 185.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.56 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +150.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked No | 57c | 147.24$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.8 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 36c | 113.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 29c | 102.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.59 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6130…b206backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +101.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 18c | 62.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.26 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed No | 44c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f08…73a8backed Yes | 20c | 56.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.44 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…a8a9backed No | 64c | 54.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2e…0873backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0676…e3c8backed Yes | 32c | 48.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 43.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb3…60d2backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -10.8wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7238…4faebacked No | 79c | 34.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a1…ddbcbacked No | 46c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 65c | 28.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…078abacked No | 48c | 27.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 20.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c3…752abacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0855…ae26backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c93…39afbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $8.5B?this page
- Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $7.0B?Yes won
- Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $7.5B?Yes won
- Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $8.0B?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.