AI · resolved market
Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $7.0B?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c9f393315ef534dc587317d75044526f2f0647062371429b40894b1f281c43a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,341
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,341 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 79c | 607.96$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.35 | 303 | 27.4%83 W · 220 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a8…865abacked No | 20c | 323$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.79 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed No | 15c | 260$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +50%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 7c | 207.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 21c | 205$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 166 | 19.3%32 W · 134 L | -21.4wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…806ebacked No | 21c | 175$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed No | 18c | 109.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x218b…22f5backed No | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…9700backed Yes | 78c | 69.23$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $7.0B?this page
- Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $7.5B?Yes won
- Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $8.0B?Yes won
- Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $8.5B?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.