Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81419b8587326c274db6e2f6389af21fa4a90605ad10e926ecf31c0c32039801
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,326
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,120
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,326 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 30c | 691.25$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.95 | 425 | 36.7%156 W · 269 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes | 19c | 526.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 32c | 357.05$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.77 | 473 | 44%208 W · 265 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 17c | 247.82$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 6c | 236.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 272 | 44.5%121 W · 151 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 22c | 233.8$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 15c | 197.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 631 | 22.5%142 W · 489 L | -29.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 79c | 193.26$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 78c | 172$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.15 | 1,451 | 52.3%759 W · 692 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 79c | 150.48$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.09 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 22c | 140$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 128.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 70c | 128$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 21c | 123.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 767 | 27%207 W · 560 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 23c | 108$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…f288backed Yes | 28c | 105.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 97.73$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.23 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 19c | 95.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 78c | 83$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 1,477 | 58.6%865 W · 612 L | +72.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 287 | 58.5%168 W · 119 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 80c | 72.42$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 485 | 46%223 W · 262 L | -16.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 79c | 71.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 15c | 69.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 16c | 67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 547 | 38.6%211 W · 336 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfa…dc55backed Yes | 21c | 65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 31c | 64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 323 | 82%265 W · 58 L | +32.7wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 27c | 44.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 41.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1,615 | 61.9%999 W · 616 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 77c | 38.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 33.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 69c | 28.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 1,417 | 65.2%924 W · 493 L | +59.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 67c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…6f94backed No | 72c | 27.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 71c | 23.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 79c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 483 | 62.5%302 W · 181 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 3,835 | 61.1%2,345 W · 1,490 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…88a2backed No | 80c | 19.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 71 | 78.9%56 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 70c | 18.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 1,367 | 69.2%946 W · 421 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 72c | 17.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 1,244 | 61.7%767 W · 477 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 72c | 17.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 15.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 2,506 | 69.7%1,747 W · 759 L | +78.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0030…1327backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 72cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 2,434 | 79.4%1,933 W · 501 L | +99.7wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…4bc3backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on August 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.