Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcfa71b5f18e2370ead8ac6e01aa59b738ed30c455475904a5ef6157cae5e3568
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,004
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,004 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes | 22c | 2,268$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.97 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked No | 79c | 1,736$1,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.92 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 57c | 551.83$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.23 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 413.53$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.93 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 73c | 400$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 75c | 380.16$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.21 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 30c | 330.89$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.05 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 299.62$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.03 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 68c | 274.32$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.1 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 43c | 236.21$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.82 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 69c | 199.86$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.24 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 27c | 193.23$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.81 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 26c | 185.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.12 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 77c | 172$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.56 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 62c | 162.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 40c | 160$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.35 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 155$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.12 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 79c | 152.08$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 72c | 147.29$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.44 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 22c | 145.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 76c | 143.51$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…3dd8backed No | 71c | 141.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.27 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked No | 74c | 130$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 59c | 125.8$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.66 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 30c | 117$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 113$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 60c | 112.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 33c | 108.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed No | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 57c | 99.82$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.91 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed No | 35c | 98.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.09 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 68c | 94.74$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 36c | 89.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 78c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 74c | 79$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 25c | 78.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.88 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…54c9backed No | 74c | 77.08$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 77c | 75.79$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 77c | 68.61$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 41c | 68.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 66.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 24c | 66.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 63c | 63.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 60.88$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 42c | 59.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 70c | 55.35$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 40c | 54.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 41c | 54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 22c | 53.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 48c | 46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…9074backed Yes | 70c | 42.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaec7…03efbacked No | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92d4…e361backed Yes | 38c | 39.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 79c | 36.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 76c | 33.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 31.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 74c | 31.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 57c | 31.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 56c | 30.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 72c | 30.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 43c | 27.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6183…9f60backed No | 76c | 26.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 77cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…e5d4backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 89 | 76.4%68 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 25.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 74c | 23.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 75c | 18.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 79c | 18.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 62c | 17.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 78c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6199…ece4backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 35 | 82.9%29 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 77c | 13.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.11 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on August 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.