TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on August 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,469
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,839

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,469 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed Yes49c2,959$1,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,512.91,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9de…81d9backed Yes41c1,473$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$875.4742036.4%153 W · 267 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c4d…bb01backed No48c1,047$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.9721829.4%64 W · 154 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes43c725.28$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.94,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5203…b975backed Yes54c699.98$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.9918641.4%77 W · 109 L-0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No63c589.54$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.024,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No49c500$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24556543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No47c496.78$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.3410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No58c479$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.412,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e40…3797backed Yes48c304.42$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.193497.1%33 W · 1 L+17.6wins+0.52per pick45cpaid+136.5%equal weight83+0.30 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No57c302.71$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.984,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes46c300.04$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.431,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No51c291.99$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.051,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No36c241.4$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.241,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No52c229.57$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.021,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No53c217.33$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.645,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No60c214$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.43,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No46c182$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.384,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No46c172$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.671,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No62c160.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.984,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes36c156$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.5614151.8%73 W · 68 L+10.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+11.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked No18c148.28$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0259121.5%127 W · 464 L-30.1wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-46.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7f33…914ebacked No8c143$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0940%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No54c137$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.9886949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes8c134.5$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.632339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick49cpaid+17.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf27a…78d8backed Yes47c126.37$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.2624942.6%106 W · 143 L-1.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes59c116.6$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.3312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No62c114.83$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.479947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb060…9572backed Yes14c106.75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.929750.5%49 W · 48 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79d9…9275backed No47c105.51$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5938560.3%232 W · 153 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed Yes52c105$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.41,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes59c104.44$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.346,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x319c…3963backed No49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491450%7 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+29.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Yes46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5417028.8%49 W · 121 L-12.9wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6a97…395bbacked Yes53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.2433628.9%97 W · 239 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c3a…8792backed No50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5018045.6%82 W · 98 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes40c97.47$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.7826344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa71d…29f0backed No45c91.49$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.322240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6aa5…7059backed Yes42c89.9$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.333948.7%19 W · 20 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No54c89$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.061,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x831a…ad82backed No48c85.01$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7519648.5%95 W · 101 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes48c75.61$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.654,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes48c75$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.0670741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes54c75$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.253,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x517d…f41fbacked Yes49c75$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.4713048.5%63 W · 67 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No75c69.83$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.562,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes47c68$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.946,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No48c68$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.742,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes53c66.81$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.485049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdfa…dc55backed Yes52c65$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.23452.9%18 W · 16 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes47c63.31$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.311,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No50c62.74$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.511,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70c4…1008backed No50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3033350.2%167 W · 166 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes43c58.13$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.131,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No58c57.05$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x27b9…90d0backed No21c55$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.651127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-45.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x73e7…8b59backed Yes31c54.91$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.1343441.5%180 W · 254 L+29.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No70c54$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.95,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0da…3ff6backed No48c52.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1917658%102 W · 74 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x379a…4b1abacked Yes55c51.54$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.3242948%206 W · 223 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No49c48.6$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.611,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes52c47.77$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.931,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No50c47$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.423,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65f7…86ddbacked No48c45.27$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5125758%149 W · 108 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No49c45$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.11,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes47c45$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.971,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No46c43.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4aab…38ccbacked No49c41.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.357470.3%52 W · 22 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes52c40$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.41,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No58c39.86$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.112,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No47c39.8$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.894,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No52c38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7689557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x234c…90dbbacked Yes53c37.89$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8958138.9%226 W · 355 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae7a…25eabacked No52c35.79$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4392761.7%572 W · 355 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No47c34.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4589661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes39c34$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7447738.8%185 W · 292 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No60c33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.81,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No49c31.84$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.684759.4%503 W · 344 L+41.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c29.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.192,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No75c29.19$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.862,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes45c29$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes50c28.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.512,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes47c27.92$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9231943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes45c26.66$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6625342.3%107 W · 146 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes45c25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.751,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No60c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.951,01058.1%587 W · 423 L-34.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No50c24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1291861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No49c23.51$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.467,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes78c22.5$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.852,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7aed…df39backed No76c22.05$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7635063.1%221 W · 129 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb84c…e169backed No60c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1241752%217 W · 200 L-11.4wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43fd…59d3backed No59c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.815961.6%98 W · 61 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fb4…c6d7backed No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1037150.4%187 W · 184 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x813f…26ecbacked No59c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.880962.1%502 W · 307 L-22.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee25…63ccbacked Yes52c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.720056.5%113 W · 87 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bbd…3bedbacked No56c19.91$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0637541.6%156 W · 219 L-52.4wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-28%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xc3d5…c693backed Yes54c19.65$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.041560%9 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+41.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No53c19$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e7f…2015backed No79c15$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.82360.9%14 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.