MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x595d6964307bdd081a78bc9a70ea9d34bb3007ec26922a78285ac03121166921
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof Chicago Cubs, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,974
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,051
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,974 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 5,249$3,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,994.62 | 1,436 | 49.3%708 W · 728 L | -6.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 36c | 2,056$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.65 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 1,531$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.83 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d98…e447backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 1,252$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago Cubs | 38c | 1,251$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.25 | 4,524 | 48.9%2,214 W · 2,310 L | -42.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Chicago Cubs | 38c | 1,024$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.12 | 2,319 | 51.1%1,184 W · 1,135 L | +26.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 937$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.43 | 750 | 50.8%381 W · 369 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…d241backed St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 819.67$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.67 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Chicago Cubs | 38c | 769$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.22 | 7,046 | 50.5%3,560 W · 3,486 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 600$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 8,451 | 47.9%4,048 W · 4,403 L | +81.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 526.65$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.02 | 11,606 | 52.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L | +210.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 516.79$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.55 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -8.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 423.01$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.97 | 5,517 | 50.6%2,791 W · 2,726 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 375.08$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 393 | 51.7%203 W · 190 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Chicago Cubs | 41c | 370.65$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 356.47$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.36 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 311.89$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.68 | 11,054 | 51.5%5,694 W · 5,360 L | +137.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 309.96$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.77 | 8,251 | 46.3%3,820 W · 4,431 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 309.16$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.39 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…0482backed St. Louis Cardinals | 74c | 285.04$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 522 | 28%146 W · 376 L | -57.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc14e…3315backed Chicago Cubs | 34c | 276.42$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.8 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 271.32$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.39 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Chicago Cubs | 38c | 243.82$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.04 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Chicago Cubs | 12c | 230.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 4,197 | 50.2%2,106 W · 2,091 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 217$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.34 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Chicago Cubs | 38c | 176.5$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.07 | 2,349 | 49.9%1,172 W · 1,177 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 129.03$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.03 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Chicago Cubs | 38c | 126.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 120$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 522 | 46.7%244 W · 278 L | -22.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 111.11$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.11 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed Chicago Cubs | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 214 | 36.9%79 W · 135 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Chicago Cubs | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 68.89$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Chicago Cubs | 38c | 66.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Chicago Cubs | 38c | 65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0a…75acbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 465 | 46%214 W · 251 L | -17.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 61.9$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 469 | 59.5%279 W · 190 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 1,889 | 52.9%1,000 W · 889 L | +15.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked Chicago Cubs | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 34.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 28.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 22.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…6468backed St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 20.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 1,494 | 63.4%947 W · 547 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 68c | 15.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 5,172 | 54.6%2,824 W · 2,348 L | +227.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-4.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago CubsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 17.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago CubsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.