TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
St. Louis Cardinalsof St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago Cubs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,839
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,052

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,839 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2005…75eabacked St. Louis Cardinals30c424.83$129 inWon+$295.468,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc365…2e53backed St. Louis Cardinals65c207$135 inWon+$71.961,60753.2%855 W · 752 L+74.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ab7…6978backed Chicago Cubs34c199.99$68 inLost-$6814643.2%63 W · 83 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61f1…7aefbacked Chicago Cubs70c191.42$134 inLost-$133.9939953.6%214 W · 185 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3453…8524backed Chicago Cubs70c191.42$134 inLost-$133.9938551.4%198 W · 187 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc282…0c5fbacked St. Louis Cardinals36c135.09$49 inWon+$86.16726.9%18 W · 49 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-21.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed St. Louis Cardinals36c120.59$44 inWon+$76.583,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Chicago Cubs64c115.81$74 inLost-$74.122,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed St. Louis Cardinals38c101$38 inWon+$62.624,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5116…83adbacked Chicago Cubs62c101$63 inLost-$62.625543.6%24 W · 31 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4284…62acbacked Chicago Cubs17c80$14 inLost-$13.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Cubs63c68.51$43 inLost-$43.1611,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Chicago Cubs62c46.79$29 inLost-$29.2310,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e62…79f1backed St. Louis Cardinals35c44.86$16 inWon+$29.2142047.9%201 W · 219 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0f4…6fa9backed Chicago Cubs67c40$27 inLost-$26.81,77758.4%1,037 W · 740 L+91.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked Chicago Cubs63c35.59$22 inLost-$22.4267444.1%297 W · 377 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc23…a9f2backed Chicago Cubs64c31$20 inLost-$19.8446854.5%255 W · 213 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1719…ec68backed Chicago Cubs64c31$20 inLost-$19.8472154.2%391 W · 330 L+20.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+144.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Chicago Cubs63c24.32$15 inLost-$15.326,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.